Feasibility Study Of Benefit For Forage And Livestock Integrated Project In Hexi Corridor,China

With the implementation of the strategy of rural revitalization and the proposal of policies such as the conversion of grain to feed and the revitalization of the dairy industry,the state attaches great importance to the development of forage and animal husbandry industry.Hexi Corridor is located in the inland arid area which has the natural conditions for the development of high-yield and high-quality alfalfa.In recent years,with the support of relevant national industrial policies,alfalfa commercial forage cultivation and production have made rapid development.However,with the rapid development of forage industry in this region,its deficiency has become increasingly prominent.The single production mode based on the production of forage products lacks the matching of livestock production,which does not really form an ecological cycle industry model with the coupling of ecology and production.Its short industrial chain and low added value of products not only lead to the consumption of limited water resources in the arid ecosystem,but also can not form a virtuous circle within the system.In the arid area of Hexi Corridor,this single forage production mode is not only selling forage to the outside,but also exporting scarce water resources,which is not conducive to the eco-environmental protection and social and economic sustainable development of Hexi Corridor.In the new historical period,the Chinese government has put forward the development concept of innovation,coordination,green,openness and sharing,emphasizing the need to promote the overall development of grain,economy and feeding,local transformation and utilization of forage,and the integrated development of forage and livestock.Promoting the transformation of agriculture to ecological and circular development is an effective way for agricultural development in Hexi Corridor,China.The study follows the principles of ecological priority,simultaneous development of forage and livestock and green development,according to the theory of forage agricultural system and the advantages of regional resources,and uses the investment evaluation method of forage and animal husbandry projects to study the economic feasibility of investing in forage-livestock integration projects in Hexi Corridor,so as to provide a scientific basis for promoting the high-quality transformation and upgrading of forage and animal husbandry in this area.The conclusions of the study are as follows:Firstly,taking Yong-chang County in the middle of Hexi Corridor as the study area of project investment,an investment project of integrated circular development of forage and livestock is designed.The construction content of the project includes dairy cow breeding,forage planting,animal product processing,organic fertilizer production and trade logistics.Of this total,the content and scale of the dairy cow breeding system is 10000 Holstein cows,and the forage planting area is estimated to be about 2005.9 hm~2according to the amount of dairy cows and the per unit yield level of forage.It is planned that the investment period of the project is 10 years,and the total investment of the project is about 637 million yuan.Among them,578million yuan of the construction investment,26 million yuan of the interest during the construction period,and 34 million yuan of the working capital,which account for90.71%4.01%5.38%of the total investment respectively.The project reaches the design capacity after 3 years,and the average annual sales income is estimated to be about 298 million yuan,about 123 million yuan of the average annual total cost,and about 146.8 million yuan per year of the after-tax profit.The results show that the forage-livestock integration project in Hexi Corridor is economically feasible.Secondly,the financial net present value(NPV)of the forage-livestock integration project is 164.6203 million yuan,and the internal rate of return(IRR)is12.22%,which is greater than the internal rate of return of the industry.The rate of return on investment(ROI)is 27.1%,and the investment profit and tax rate(ROE)is10.3%.The static investment payback period is about 6.7 years,and the dynamic investment payback period is about 8.35 years.It shows that the project has strong profitability.Through the analysis of break-even,which can be achieved when the fresh milk output reaches 32407 tons after the project is put into production.Taking sales income,operating cost and construction investment cost as uncertain factors,the sensitivity analysis of financial net present value and internal rate of return shows that sales income is the most sensitive factor affecting the economic benefits of the project.Thirdly,investing in forage-livestock integration project in Hexi Corridor has better natural resource conditions and market development prospects,and can achieve better economic,ecological and social benefits.The implementation of the project is conducive to the transformation of the Hexi Corridor from a single commercial forage production mode to the integration of forage and livestock.