| Cucumber is one of the main economic vegetable crops cultivated in solar greenhouse.At present,the management of cucumber cultivation in greenhouse,mostly focuses on the temperature regulation during the day,ignoring the importance of night temperature management,and night is an important period for cucumber dry matter accumulation.Rough temperature management will lead to lower yields and lead to economic benefits.At the same time,inappropriate night temperature control options will increase variable costs in production,reduce output and quality,and reduce economic benefits.In order to solve the above problems,this experiment economic analysis used to obtain the most economical temperature and the maximum profit value of winter greenhouse heating production.At the same time,it proposed a profitable area for cucumber heating production and a second-stage loss area which heating production was not recommended.Finally,the influence of various economic indicators on profits under different night temperature was obtained.In the context of the rapid development of the current commodity economy,the economy of the most economical night temperature and heating time proposed in this experiment was of great significance to actual production.The main findings were as follows:Through the cost-volume-profit analysis method,it can be concluded that the output profit range form by the break-even point under the target treatment of 19℃and 16℃night temperature control is relatively large,respectively,1178.29 kg/667m~2-3053.35 kg/667 m~2,1160.4 kg/667m~2-3590.97 kg/667m~2,the economic flexibility is greater,the profit expectation is higher,the CK profit range is the smallest,and the possibility of facing a loss in production is greater.With the increase of night temperature gradient,the maximum profit value of each treatment shows an upward trend.The maximum profit value of 19℃is only616.87 yuan/667m~2 higher than that of 16℃,the difference is not significant,and the heating fee of 16℃is significantly lower than that of 19℃,and the lower heating cost has reached the maximum equivalent to 19℃Profit value.Considering factors such as input-output ratio and greenhouse energy saving and emission reduction,16℃night temperature control and management is more economical and feasible.According to sensitivity analysis,it can be concluded that the yield and heating cost have the greatest positive and negative correlation sensitivity coefficient on profit at 10℃,and the profit will increase by 92.25 yuan and decrease by 45.52 yuan for every 1%increase of the total yield and heating cost.13℃,16℃and 19℃have the largest positive and negative correlation coefficients for profit.Price and heating fee are the most sensitive coefficient.Each increase of 1%of the total will increase the profit by 215.27,195.98 and 250.05 yuan,and the profit will decrease by 110.74,169.74 and 182.01 yuan.Each treatment pesticide,fertilizer fee and depreciation sensitivity coefficient is low,and the impact on profit is minimal.In actual production,under different night temperature management,the yield should be controlled within the profitable area to prevent heating production in the second stage of loss area.In case of production loss area,it is necessary to increase the yield of commodity fruit or reduce labor and unnecessary heating costs to improve the benefits.During the cucumber production period,we must pay attention to the changes of market prices in real time.The prices is determined by market changes.In most cases,we are just passive receivers of prices.Therefore,we must deal with uncontrollable changes in advance to increase actual production profits.At the same time,it is necessary to pay attention to the yield and heating cost indicators.During the cucumber fruiting period,it is necessary to strengthen the management of water,fertilizer and temperature and light environment to improve the heat preservation performance and heating utilization rate of the greenhouse. |
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