Analysis On The Driving Factors Of Human-tiger Conflict And Its Risk Classification In Hunchun Area Of Jilin Province

The human-tiger conflict is an urgent problem in tiger distributed countries in the world.The aggravation of conflicts not only has a negative impact on the personal and property safety of local residents,but also hinders the normal activities of tigers in the areas where humans and tigers are shared.To explore how to effectively solve conflicts are tiger this problem,the author in November 2018 to September 2020,in hunchun of jilin province for the past 10 years happened in one visit tiger incident investigation and field survey,the analysis of major driving factors in tiger conflict,forecasters tiger conflict probability and risk grade of the study area division.The main research results and findings are as follows:1.The current situation of human-tiger conflict in Hunchun areaA total of 162 residents who suffered from the conflicts between human and tiger from 2010 to 2020 in 45 villages in Hunchun area were investigated by using semi-structured interview method and open-ended questions to collect the information of the conflicts.The investigation results showed that there were 679 human-tiger conflicts in Hunchun in the past 10 years,with an average of 5.35 in each natural month,resulting in 738 casualties of cattle,horses,dogs and other livestock,and the economic compensation amounted to 6,799,014 yuan.Among them,there was one incident of personal injury.The peak season of conflicts is from April to October,which coincides with the spring planting and autumn harvest.2.Driving factors of human-tiger conflictA sample method was used to record environmental data at each conflict site using 191 events that could be identified from the survey results.Generalized linear model and generalized additive model were established to explore and analyze the driving factors of conflict events.The results show that in the generalized linear model,the distance to pasture has the greatest influence on the occurrence of conflict events,followed by the net primary productivity of vegetation and average altitude,and the distance to water source has the least influence.In the generalized additive model,the distance to the pasture has a U-shaped effect on the human-tiger conflict,that is,the closer the distance to the pasture,the more likely the conflict is to occur.The farther away you are from the pasture,the less likely you are to have a conflict.The distance to the village has an inverted "U" shape effect on the human-tiger conflict.The closer the distance to the village,the less likely the conflict is to occur.The farther away you are from a village,the more likely it is that conflict will occur3.Regional division of risk levelsUsing generalized linear model,generalized additive model and random forest model,an integrated model is made to predict the occurrence probability of human-tiger conflict events in Hunchun area.Taking the village center as the center of the circle,a buffer zone with an average radius of 3km was extracted as the risk assessment area.According to the probability of the occurrence of conflict events at various points in the region,four risk levels are divided into danger area,high risk area,medium risk area and low risk area.The results show that the prediction results of the Integrated model show that the highest probability of tiger encounter in the risk level area is 0.935,and the lowest probability is 0.002.The area of risk area(0.665～0.883)was 442.573km2,accounting for 19%of the area of risk area.The area of high risk area(0.447-0.665)was 580.003km2,accounting for 24.9%of the area of high risk area;The area of middle risk area(0.228-0.447)is 458.878km2,accounting for 19.7%of the area of high risk area;The area of low risk area(0.009-0.228)is 847.876km2,accounting for 36.4%of the area of risk area.Among them,the corresponding areas of danger and high risk are Hadamen Township,Chunhua Township,Jingxin Township and Yangpao Manchu Township in Hunchun Prefecture.To sum up,this study systematically analyzed the driving factors of human-tiger conflict in Hunchun area,made an integrated model prediction with the results of driving factors analysis,and classified the risk areas of human-tiger conflict in Hunchun area,which provided important theoretical and data support for the prevention strategy of human-tiger conflict in Hunchun area.According to the results of investigation and analysis,the definition of human-tiger conflict is summarized systematically,which provides technical and theoretical reference for the study of the conflict between large carnivores and humans.