| As the basic industry of China,agriculture is the foundation of economic and social stability.As a major agricultural province,Shandong Province is one of the major grain producing provinces and a major aquaculture province.The agricultural departments at all levels in Shandong Province conscientiously implemented the new development concept and made efforts to promote the structural reform of the agricultural supply side.The pace of agricultural transformation and upgrading has been accelerating,and the agricultural and rural economy has developed steadily and healthily.However,issues such as food prices and changes in the structure of livestock and poultry farming still need to be improved.Therefore,based on the agricultural statistics of Shandong Province from 1995 to 2016,based on relevant agricultural theories,using mathematical statistics.ESDA,gravity transfer model and multiple regression models,the time of planting structure and aquaculture structure in Shandong Province was analyzed.Changes,and analyzed the evolution of grain production pattern and its geographical agglomeration characteristics in Shandong Province,explored the key factors affecting the changes of grain production pattern,and analyzed the impact factors of aquaculture industry.Research indicates:(1)The results of time-varying research on planting industry in Shandong Province:From 1995 to 2016,the output value of crop production in Shandong Province showed a significant upward trend,from 92.296 billion yuan in 1995 to 464.135 billion yuan in 2016;the total planting area of crops fluctuated,including food.Crops,oil crops and cotton are all decreasing trends,and the area of fruits and vegetables is increasing.In food crops,corn and wheat account for the majority of the proportion,and the area planted with corn continues to rise,from 269.48 in 1995.The increase of 10,000 hectares to 3,334,200 hectares in 2016,the overall trend of wheat is stable;the sown area of green fodder crops related to aquaculture has a large fluctuation,and the planting scale is small.(2)The results of research on the spatial and temporal changes of aquaculture in Shandong Province:From 1995 to 2016,the output value of aquaculture in Shandong Province increased significantly,from 43.362 billion yuan in 1995 to 254.082 billion yuan in 2016,with an average annual growth of 9.57 billion yuan.The proportion of output value has increased year by year.The overall fluctuations of the total aquaculture of pigs,cattle,sheep and poultry in Shandong Province represented by pig equivalents were large,and the total aquaculture population showed an increasing trend.from 185.75 million in 1995 to 254.43 million in 2016.Among them,the consumption of grain-based livestock represented by pigs and chickens showed an increasing trend,and the number of herbivorous livestock represented by cattle and sheep showed a decreasing trend.In terms of spatial distribution,pig breeding is mainly distributed in Weifang City,Jining City.Linyi City,Dezhou City and Heze City;poultry breeding is mainly distributed in Weifang City,Qingdao City.Liaocheng City,Jining City and Linyi City;It is mainly distributed in Dezhou City,Liaocheng City,Jinan City,Binzhou City and Heze City in the west;sheep breeding is mainly distributed in Heze City,Jining City and Liaocheng City.(3)The results of research on the evolution of grain production pattern and its influencing factors in Shandong Province:Using ESDA,gravity shift model and multiple regression model,it was found that the grain production in Shandong Province fluctuated greatly,and the grain output decreased from 42.45 million tons in 1995 to 32.93 million tons in 2002.Ten thousand tons,and then through thirteen consecutive increases,reached 47.13 million tons by 2015;on the county scale,the spatial concentration of grain production in Shandong Province has been increasing,but the output growth in the western region is significantly faster than that in the eastern region,and the center of gravity moves to the west significantly.Gradually formed the spatial pattern of "Western and East Cold".Studies have shown that the total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigated area and total population at the end of the year have a significant positive impact on food production,while per capita GDP and rural electricity consumption are negatively impacted,jointly promoting food production and The evolution of the spatial pattern.(4)Analysis results of impact factors of aquaculture industry in Shandong Province:Through principal component analysis,it is found that the influencing factors of aquaculture production pattern can be summarized into three categories:natural resource factors,social economic factors and natural environmental conditions.Among the natural resource factors,cultivated land,agricultural water,food production and rural population provide basic guarantees for the development of aquaculture;in terms of social and economic factors,the per capita GDP and the disposable income of rural residents reflect the level of economic development,which ensures The steady development of the aquaculture industry;in natural environmental conditions,precipitation and suitable temperature promote the further expansion of the aquaculture industry.(5)The results of the coordinated development of planting and aquaculture in Shandong Province:Through the construction of the evaluation system,the entropy method was used to analyze the coordination degree of planting and aquaculture in various regions of Shandong Province,and the resource endowment factors,macroeconomic and market factors and agricultural productivity were determined.The different factors affect the different regions,and finally the coordination degree of Shandong Province is divided into three categories. |
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