Research On The Dynamic Relationship Between Energy Consumption,Foreign Trade And Economic Growth In Anhui Province

Energy is the driving force of economic development and the lifeblood of industry.On the one hand,energy consumption promotes economic growth,while on the other hand,carbon emissions caused by massive energy consumption lead to the greenhouse effect and natural disasters,which threaten human production and life and partially offset the effect of economic growth.The two-sided nature of energy consumption determines that to analyze the impact of energy consumption on economic growth,it is necessary not only to consider the economic growth rate,but also to analyze how to promote healthy and sustainable economic development under the background of "double carbon".At present,foreign trade,as one of the "troika" of economic operation,also plays a crucial role in the economic development of Anhui Province,and at the same time,energy consumption based on endowment may be one of the factors to promote the development of foreign trade.It is important to further promote the sustainable and healthy economic development of Anhui Province by exploring the dynamic relationship among the three.Based on the previous literature,this paper firstly compares the interaction mechanism of energy consumption,foreign trade and economic growth with related theories and mechanisms,and then discusses the current situation of the three,analyzes the development trend and existing problems from the overall and local perspectives,and finally analyzes the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Anhui Province based on the sample data of renewable energy consumption from1990 to 2020 and the sample data of energy consumption,foreign trade and economic growth from 1978 to 2020.The relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Anhui Province is first analyzed by EG co-integration test and ECM model,and then the VAR model is used to integrate energy consumption,economic growth and foreign trade in Anhui Province into a unified framework,and the dynamic response relationship among the three is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively by impulse response function and variance decomposition.The study shows that:（1）renewable energy consumption has a negative inhibitory effect on economic growth in the short term and a positive promoting effect on economic growth in the long term.（2）there is a two-way Granger causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Anhui Province,and a one-way Granger causality relationship between foreign trade on economic growth and energy consumption.（3）Energy consumption,foreign trade and economic growth have a positive contribution to each other.（4）There is inertia among energy consumption,foreign trade and economic growth in Anhui Province,and self-accumulation and dependence are the most significant fluctuations in themselves.Based on the findings of this paper,the following policy recommendations are proposed:（1）Improve energy utilization efficiency and accelerate low-carbon energy transformation.（2）Adjusting the structure of foreign trade and accelerating the construction of the Pilot Free Trade Zone.（3）Transforming economic growth and accelerating the transformation of industrial structure.