Research On Calculation Of Discount Rate In Equity Valuation Of Electric Power Enterprises

In 2020,China proposed a "dual carbon" goal in light of China’s actual situation,which is striving to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.The power industry is the key industry to control carbon emissions.Therefore,the structure of the power industry should be adjusted.In 2021,the transaction cases of asset merger and reorganization in the power industry increased significantly.Following this wave,how to better evaluate the enterprise value of the power industry is particularly important.In2021,China Asset Appraisal Association and China Securities Regulatory Commission successively issued guidelines to standardize the calculation of discount rate.However,by querying the evaluation instructions in 2021,it is found that many evaluation institutions still have great subjectivity and ambiguity about the selection and measurement of discount rate parameters.With the change of supervision mode,this thesis based on guidelines provides a more objective and detailed operation path to achieve the purpose of reasonable selection of calculation parameters.In order to explore how to determine the discount rate in the equity valuation of electric power enterprises,the characteristics of the electric power industry itself and related parameters are analyzed in this thesis.Firstly,based on literature theory,the concept of related parameters and measurement methods are sorted out,laying a foundation for subsequent empirical analysis of parameters.Secondly,the development status,development trend and risk characteristics of the power industry are analyzed to provide an industry basis for the parameter research.At the same time,the power industry enterprise value evaluation description is sorted out,the effective evaluation samples are analyzed,and the current market application of discount rate is described.Then combined with the relevant data and characteristics of the power industry,time series model,3D modeling and factor analysis are used to analyze the risk-free rate,market risk premium,beta coefficient and enterprise-specific risk coefficient respectively.The following conclusions and suggestions are drawn:(1)For the risk-free interest rate,the yield curve method is determined to calculate the risk-free interest rate;(2)For the market risk premium,this thesis suggests to choose the appropriate index CSI 300,and gives priority to the calculation method of geometric average and 10-year and above sample period to calculate the average return rate of the market;(3)For beta coefficient,this thesis suggests to choose a smaller monthly return rate from the impact of valuation error rate;(4)For enterprise-specific risk coefficient,scale premium plus individual risk premium is adopted to measure it.Behind them,the scale risk return uses mature calculation method,and the influence factors of individual risk premium are further determined through factor analysis to increase industry correlation.In the end,these conclusions and suggestions are proved by a equity valuation sample.