Research On The Formation Mechanism And Sensitivity Analysis Of Passenger Flow In Regional Rail Transit

China’s "14th Five-Year" regional development report puts forward that with the rapid development of urbanization and the increasing economic level,we should vigorously promote the in-depth development of regional integration and take urban agglomeration and metropolitan circle as the important foothold of regional economic development in the "14th Five-Year" period.The development of regional integration cannot be separated from the support of comprehensive traffic network and rail transit.Only by mutual influence and mutual promotion can regional integration develop healthily and steadily.Nowadays,the construction of various types of rail transit is gradually expanded,and the construction of rail transit facilities is increasingly comprehensive,showing a good development situation of network.On this basis,the integration of regional rail transit is the result of the general trend and the situation,and it is also an important link to promote the sound and high-speed development of regional economy.Regional rail transit includes high-speed railway,constant speed railway,intercity railway,municipal and urban rail transit.For the purpose of analyzing the formation mechanism and sensitivity analysis of regional rail transit passenger flow,this paper includes two parts: the formation mechanism research of regional rail transit passenger flow based on N-K model and the sensitivity analysis of passenger flow based on Elman neural network.Based on the N-K model,the principle of coupling trigger is introduced to obtain the factors that affect passenger travel choice.The influencing factors are divided into human,machine,environment and management,and the entropy weight method and chi-square test are used to extract the sensitivity factors of passenger flow from the influencing factors.Then Elman neural network is selected to analyze the sensitivity factors.The sensitivity factors of passenger flow are taken as the input variables of the neural network and passenger flow as the output variables to analyze the change of passenger flow caused by the change of sensitivity factors.Before using the N-K model to study the mechanism of passenger flow formation,passengers of regional rail transit should also be taken as the research object.Firstly,the travel chain of regional rail transit is defined,and a questionnaire is designed to investigate the travel behavior of regional passengers.The influencing factors of passenger flow are obtained from the research on the forming mechanism of passenger flow,which are further divided into qualitative and quantitative influencing factors,and the sensitivity factors of regional rail transit passenger flow are extracted respectively.Then,the sensitivity factors extracted are taken as input variables to design the parameters of the neural network and establish the sensitivity analysis model of regional rail transit passenger flow based on Elman neural network.Then,according to the differences in the actual and theoretical passenger flow of regional rail transit,the differences are divided into two categories: total volume difference and distribution difference.Based on the sensitivity factors extracted,passenger flow guidance countermeasures and anti-risk suggestions under different circumstances are put forward.Finally,this paper analyzes the passenger flow of rail transit in Chengdu-Chongqing region,designs the changes of different sensitive factors according to the existing studies,obtains the changes of passenger flow corresponding to different changes,and then puts forward the anti-risk countermeasures of passenger flow of rail transit in Chengdu-Chongqing region based on the sensitive factors.