Research On Decision-making Time Effects Of High-speed Railway Dispatching Based On Delay Propagation Simulation

The Chinese High-Speed Railway(HSR)operation and control center is the core of the system to ensure the operation of the HSR in a high-speed,safe and efficient way.It links multiple roles in the railway cooperation including scheduling and command center,subbranch command center,railway stations,power station,depot,rolling stock,etc.It takes charge of information integration,processing,distribution,as well as rescheduling and adjustment when networks are in abnormal conditions.This dissertation focuses on the operation and control center of HSR and studies the time effectiveness of the decision based on the simulations of the delay risk propagation.This paper aims to study the impact of the time effectiveness and accuracy of the HSR scheduling decision on transportation organization.Based on literature reviews and onsite research,the structure and functions of the HSR operation and control center are analyzed,as well as the workflow and information flow of each dispatcher.The effect and mechanism of the HSR scheduling command on transportation organization are measured both qualitatively and quantitatively from the aspects of method overview,system analysis,model establishment and computer simulation.Based on the existing emergency handling scheme in Chinese HSR dispatching command system,this paper studies the multi-thread and multiple transportation adjustment instructions issued by dispatchers to other departments using the sequential chart analysis method.In this process,the coordinate rates between multiple tasks are different,which reflects the duration of the total response time.Therefore,a mathematical relationship model between the coordinate rate and the total response time of scheduling is established.An HSR delay risk propagation model based on multiple trains on one service route is proposed,which are validated by a case study.Combined with simulation demand analysis,the BRa VE simulation platform based on railway signaling simulation is selected in this paper.A delay analysis simulation framework is designed,which can simulate the delay propagation phenomenon in the CTCS signaling scheme when there is a train failure in a railway line.With different scheduling response times,four simulation scenarios of train failure recovery are designed,including failure recovery in the low-speed section and high-speed section,degraded failure recovery in high-speed section and failure recovery in manual control mode in high-speed section.The test result of the batch simulation shows the accumulative train delay time is linearly positive correlated with the response time of the scheduling system.A slope turning point also exists in the correlation.When the response time exceeds this point,the total number and total delay time of trains affected by failures in a railway network can increase significantly,and the value of turning point is related to the speed limit in the section.Finally,using the analysis and simulation results and the principle of railway network delay risk control,this paper provides a simulation basis and methodology for the formulation of the maximum permissible response time index for dispatchers.