| Recent years have witnessed the contiuous developement of vehicle industry affected by the policy and market condition.With the first batch of new energy vehicle power batteries entering into a large replacement,power battery recycling,a derivative problem of it gradually came to the fore.Power battery recycling has both significant economic and environmental benefits.The cobalt-nickel and other metal elements in the battery can be effectively recycled for secondary use,which can save the cost of battery production.At the same time,the standardized dismantling and utilization of power batteries can reduce pollution and emission,which is highly compatible with "carbon peak,carbon neutrality" strategic.In China,the national level also attache the great importance to the development of the power battery recycling industry.In 2015,national ministries and commissions have issued more than ten policies to gradually regulate and improve the used battery recycling market from shallow to deep and from weak to strong.With the support of national and local policies,along with the innovation of battery production and recycling technology,the scale of power battery and its subsidiary recycling industry has been expanding,and the whole industry has entered a stable and positive development stage.The good development prospect of the industry has attracted the attention of investors,and the demand for evaluation of enterprises in the industry has increased significantly.However,as high-tech enterprises,power battery enterprises have characteristics that distinguish them from traditional enterprises,such as a high proportion of R＆D investment and intangible assets,along with large uncertainties.This makes the traditional enterprise valuation models more inappropriate when applied to this industry.In this paper,we will evaluate the enterprise value through the Schwartz-Moon model under the real options approach to provide stakeholders with some references on valuation and enterprise operation level.At first,we comb through the research on the power battery recycling industry and finds that previous studies generally stand in a more macro perspective and study the closed-loop supply chain of new energy vehicle manufacturers,battery manufacturers and recycling enterprises,while few focus on a single link in the chain to conduct specific case studies and enterprise value analysis,making it difficult to match the academic research situation with the industry development trend.Then,through literature combing,this paper argues that finding enterprise value drivers is the key to an accurate valuation.In order to achieve enterprise value creation,enterprise valuation principles should be aligned with the strategic planning of enterprises,and key indicators of enterprise profitability model should be identified from valuation models.In the valuation of high-tech enterprises,previous studies generally believe that the real options approach can better identify the value drivers of high-tech enterprises compared with traditional valuation models,because the uncertainty implied in the real options approach can fit better with the uncertainty in the development processes of company with high technology.The existing literature points to a new direction in the valuation of high-tech enterprises,however,there is still a lack of specific case application analysis in the academic community on how to further specifically combine industry and enterprise value drivers with valuation models and parameter weight variability.In terms of research ideas,this paper firstly proceeds to construct the Coepland enterprise value drivers analysis system and the Schwartz-Moon model,by comparise them,it can be initially found that the Schwartz-Moon model achieves better coverage of the indicators of enterprise value drivers,and the drivers that fail to be covered become the article’s parameter revision The drivers that are not covered by the Schwartz-Moon model become the primary consideration for the parameter revision.Secondly,the article analyzes Greenmarket specifically through the constructed Coepland enterprise value drivers analysis system.The study finds that Greenmarket’s periskfreeormance in financial data does not match the industry development expectations,and the enterprise has a high proportion of fixed assets,a tight capital chain,and relies more on government subsidies.However,through further in-depth analysis,we found that the company has gradually undergone strategic transformation in recent years,abandoning part of the waste resource comprehensive utilization industry dragging business lines and gradually moving into the power lithium battery specialization production.The transformation of the power battery business has gradually brought GEM out of the quagmire of heavy assets and found new growth points for periskfreeormance.Meanwhile,we found that the layout of the power battery recycling business has enabled GEM to have a higher gross margin than the industry,which has become one of the important value drivers for the company.Again,based on the previous analysis,we modified the parameters of the Schwartz-Moon model in GEM.The article consider the uncertainty of government subsidies,intangible assets and gross margin based on the original model in accordance with the industry and enterprise characteristics,and introduce the exit multiple method and put option idea to reduce the subjectivity of parameter M.In terms of specific model calculation,the article assumes that all processes have the same half-life through matlab programming to promote the convenience and feasibility of model implementation.The article evaluates the enterprise value and finds that the modified Schwartz-Moon model can predict the enterprise value of Green America in the short term and can detect the temporary underestimation of the market value of the enterprise.Finally,the article conducts a sensitivity analysis on the key parameters of the Schwartz-Moon model to further investigate the impact of each parameter on enterprise value.Based on the rapid development of the new energy vehicle and power battery industries,we introduces the Coepland value driver analysis system,Intellectual Capital and the modified Schwartz-Moon model in the enterprise value assessment of GEM,which extends the application of the Schwartz-Moon model to a certain extent.This paper enlightens us that the drivers of enterprise value are multiple,and the portrayal of enterprise strategy on value drivers should penetrate into each link and section of the value-added enterprise value chain,and the use of a valuation model with a high degree of adaptability can realize the initial trade-off of enterprise business strategy by means of valuation tests at the time of decision making. |
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