Spatial Conflict And Prediction Of Land Use In The Upper Reaches Of Minjiang River Based On CLUE-S Model

The continuous growth of people’s demand for land has led to the change of land use pattern.With the increasing tension of land resources and the increasing pressure of land space,there will be a certain degree of conflict.This conflict phenomenon will be reflected in space,which is manifested in frequent changes in land types,disorderly expansion of construction land and occupation of farmland,urban development squeezing rural development,overlapping and competition between agricultural land space,construction land space and ecological space,which makes the land landscape pattern complex and fragmented,so as to highlight the problem of land use space conflict.The upper reaches of Minjiang River is a key area for maintaining ecological security in southwest China.Mastering the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of land use spatial conflict in this region can not only enhance the cognition of land use status in the upper reaches of Minjiang River,but also be of great significance in promoting the sustainable use of regional land resources,the optimization of spatial pattern,the parallel development of mountain economic construction and ecological environment protection.This paper took the upper reaches of Minjiang River as the research object and took 2005-2020 as the research period.Based on the quantitative analysis of the land use change in the upper reaches of Minjiang River during the research period,from the perspective of landscape pattern,this paper constructed the measurement model of land use spatial conflict,and explored the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of land use spatial conflict in the upper reaches of Minjiang River.Combined with the CLUE-S model,this paper explores the land use spatial conflict level under the three scenarios of natural development,ecological protection and rapid urbanization in the upper reaches of Minjiang River in 2030,and identifies the conflict prone areas in order to realize the risk early warning of land use spatial conflict.Through the above research,the main conclusions are as follows:（1）Forest land and grassland are the main land use types in this region.During the whole study period,the area of forest land,cultivated land,water area,construction land,and unused land showed an increasing trend.The grassland area is mainly decreased.The characteristics of land use transfer are obvious.The phenomenon of mutual transformation among cultivated land,forest land and grassland is more prominent.Construction land is mainly transferred,and the phenomenon of construction land squeezing cultivated land,forest land and grassland is more obvious.The comprehensive dynamic degree of land use during the study period was 0.893%.（2）From 2005 to 2020,the area of land use spatial conflict in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River accounted for the largest proportion of the area with mild conflict,followed by the area of basic controllable level,and the area of severe conflict was the least.However,with the passage of time,the conflict area of mild and below levels showed a decreasing trend,and the conflict area of moderate and severe above mild levels mainly increased.The average level of land use spatial conflict was on the rise.In terms of counties,Heishui county and Mao county have always had a high level of conflict within the five counties,Wenchuan county and Songpan county are in the middle,and Li county is the lowest.（3）The spatial differentiation of conflicts is also significant.The high-value areas of conflict are mainly located in the ecotone of agriculture and animal husbandry,the transition areas between water and land,and the ecotone area of cultivated land and construction land in the upper reaches of Minjiang River.The low-value agglomeration area is mainly distributed in the ecological priority protection area in the upper reaches of Minjiang River.The lower the altitude,the higher the level of land use spatial conflict.The higher the altitude,the lower the level of land use spatial conflict.The land space of the upper reaches of Minjiang River is divided into three types of space（urban,agricultural and ecological）.The conflict level of urban space and agricultural space is relatively high,while the conflict level of ecological space is relatively low.（4）First,the optimal simulation scale was determined to be 250m×250m by binary logistic regression analysis.Secondly,the CLUE-S model was used to simulate the land use in 2020,and the accuracy of the model was verified to reach 93.78%.It shows that the model and the selected parameter settings are suitable for the simulation and prediction of the spatial pattern of land use in the upper reaches of Minjiang River.Finally,the CLUE-S model is used to simulate and predict the spatial pattern of land use under three scenarios in the upper reaches of Minjiang River in 2030,and explore the spatial conflict level of land use under the three scenarios in 2030.The results of the study show that the average level of conflict in the upper reaches of Minjiang River is on the rise.Under the rapid urbanization development scenario,the conflict level is the highest,followed by the natural development scenario,and the lowest conflict level under the ecological protection scenario.The land use space in the upper reaches of Minjiang River in 2030 under three scenarios is divided into three spaces（urban,agricultural and ecological）.The analysis found that under the natural development scenario and the rapid urbanization development scenario,the overall conflict intensity of each spatial type is relatively high,and the negative impact on sustainable land use and ecological environmental protection is relatively large.However,under the ecological protection scenario,the conflict intensity of each spatial type is lower,which is better for sustainable land use and ecological protection.Areas with large fluctuation of conflict level under the three scenarios are identified as key detection areas in the upper reaches of Minjiang River in the future.The key monitoring area is about 297900hm~2,mainly distributed in the southwest of Wenchuan county,southeast of Li county,west and east of Mao county,northwest of Heishui county,northern Songpan county.