Research On Demand Forecast And Allocation Of Shared Bicycles In Urban Rail Stations

With the development of economy and society,the urban rail transit network is gradually improved,and the concept of low-carbon travel is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.Shared bicycles have become a key link in connecting rail transit to solve the "last kilometer" of travel.In order to expand the scope of urban rail transit services and improve the quality of travel,it is necessary to establish a demand forecast model for shared bicycles at rail stations to ensure the balance of supply and demand and reasonable allocation of vehicles.First of all,using Python programming to carry out multi-dimensional analysis and visualization processing on the big data of Beijing Mobike bicycle rental orders,and discover the cycle time regularity and cycling distance characteristics of shared bicycles at urban rail stations,and provide demand forecast and supply configuration for shared bicycles.Provide evidence.Secondly,the time series analysis method is applied to the demand forecast of shared bicycles,and the ARMA model with the advantages of long-term trend and cyclic fluctuation fitting is selected.It is judged that the stability of the series is significantly affected by rainy weather and non-working days.The demand forecasting model of shared bicycles divides the time series of riding volume into a training set and a validation set,and uses Eviews software to model,predict and evaluate.Thirdly,the system explained the theory and method of the configuration of the rail station shared bicycle storage yard,parking points and vehicles,and proposed a storage yard configuration method based on the median location model.The TOPSIS method was used for parking point location decision-making through order big data.Filter and count the amount of riding at parking spots and determine the share rate to achieve a reasonable allocation of vehicles.Finally,taking a 3×3km rail station and Xuanwumen transfer station in Beijing as an example,the rationality of the theory and method of demand forecasting and supply allocation for shared bicycles is verified.The urban rail station shared bicycle demand prediction model constructed in the thesis has high accuracy and good applicability.At the same time,it improves the shared bicycle supply configuration theory and method,and provides a certain scientific basis and practical guidance for the reasonable configuration of shared bicycles at rail station.