Traffic Volume Forecast Of Expressway Toll Station During Holidays

With the development of social and economic strength,the people’s living level continues to improve,and the characteristics of Chinese residents’ travel behavior are gradually changing from single to diversified.The sharp increase in the travel demand of Chinese residents during holidays is a concrete manifestation of the diversified travel behavior of residents.At present,there are few studies on freeway flow prediction during holidays,and due to the limitations of historical data and prediction models,the accuracy of passenger flow prediction is low.Therefore,it is an important issue in the field of modern transportation planning and management that how to accurately predict the traffic volume of the expressway around the scenic spots during the holidays and to make accurate control strategies.This research mainly collects relevant data of Yagou toll stations on Suiman freeway from 2018 to 2019 and data obtained through a questionnaire on travel behavior of self-driving trips on holidays and holidays.Firstly,through questionnaire survey,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of self-driving travel behavior in holidays from the aspects of individual factors of travelers and the development level of tourism industry in the destination.Secondly,the paper analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of traffic volume of Yagou toll station of Suiman expressway: through the analysis of the monthly,weekly and daily variation characteristics of the traffic volume of the whole year holidays,working days and weekends,the temporal and spatial characteristics of Yagou toll station of Suiman expressway are analyzed.Meanwhile,the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic data on traffic volume changes were analyzed and compared,and the characteristics of the annual holiday trip characteristics were obtained.And then we predict the holiday traffic volume of the Yagou toll station.First,analyze the traffic volume on the holidays in 2018 and 2019,and build the BP neural network and a support vector machine model to analyze and the development trend of traffic flow at the Gou Toll Station was predicted,and the model was used to predict the traffic volume during the epidemic,which explained the impact of the epidemic on traffic travel,and combined the prediction results on the operation and management of the Yagou Toll Station.And the data were used to illustrate the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the trip of the expressway.Finally,combined with the forecast results of traffic volume of Yagou toll station Expressway on holidays,the paper puts forward relevant strategies and suggestions for its operation and management,including the travel suggestion strategies of holiday travelers and the management and control strategies of holiday managers.This study can provide accurate traffic flow prediction and related control strategy suggestions for highway travel in holidays.