Analysis And Study On The Trend Of Truck Loading On Expressway Under The Toll-by-type Mode

In order to implement the decision of the State Council on deepening the reform of toll road system and abolishing the provincial boundary toll stations of expressways,all provinces in China unified the implementation of adjusting the billing method of toll roads and unified the collection of tolls according to the classification of truck models starting from Jan.2020.The adjustment of the tolling method has changed the choice of truck loading,therefore,a comparative analysis of truck loading changes under the two charging modes of weight-based charging and vehicle charging is carried out,and the development trend of truck loading is studied,the study is not only important for exploring the impact of the policy and promoting the further implementation of the target,but also provide reference for the transportation management departments and logistics and freight enterprises to reasonably equip their transportation forces.Firstly,the paper took Shaanxi Province as the empirical analysis object,using the "with or without comparison" and combining the gray forecasting method to construct a comparative model that evaluated the the implementation effect of the policy that charge by vehicle type,which was based on the evaluation index system of expressway freight volume,truck empty rate and actual load rate,it clarified the difference in truck loading changes under the weight-based charging mode and the vehicle charging mode,and the optimized effect brought by the adjustment of the charging method.Secondly,the study deeply analyzed the loading characteristics of 2-axle freight cars,3-axle freight cars,4-axle freight cars,5-axle and 6-axle semi-trailers in 2019 and 2020,and clarified the reasons for the formation of different characteristics from the perspective of vehicle types and goods.Finally,the particle swarm algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of the prediction model.By establishing the fractional order operator GM(1,1)prediction model,the change trend of the empty driving law and loading level of different models of trucks under the vehicle toll mode was predicted,and the trend was combined.Put forward development suggestions to expressway transportation management departments,freight market entities,and vehicle manufacturers.The research results show that: after the implementation of the toll-by-type policy,the overall actual load rate of expressway trucks in 2020 increased to 56.13%,the average monthly freight volume increased by 7,378,700 tons,the empty vehicle rate dropped from 26.36% to 20.03%,and the empty vehicle running rate dropped to 21.34%,indicating that truck loading efficiency has been further improved;according to the forecast results for2021-2023,the number of 2-axle trucks will account for more than 50%,the number of empty rate and empty truck running rate will also maintain an upward trend,while the empty rate and empty truck running rate of 3-6 axle trucks will both show a decline trend;all types of heavy-duty vehicles will maintain their own heavy load or full load by increasing their average load quality,the proportion of light-loaded vehicles will gradually decrease,which will promote the continuous increase in the actual load rate of expressway trucks,continue to maximize the value of truck transportation,and further promote cargo transportation towards a trend of high-quality rationalization.