Research On Development Strategy Of Public Bicycle Based On Stability Analysis Of Urban Bicycle Sharing System

The stable development of urban shared bicycle travel system is an important prerequisite for promoting urban green transportation as well as solving the ”last-kilometer” for the residents.However,the current urban bike-sharing system is composed of public bike-sharing funded by the government and the corporate bike-sharing invested by the enterprise,the stability of the urban bike-sharing system will be affected by the different operation strategies adopted by the two,but almost no one has conducted research on this question.Therefore,a system dynamics(SD)model is bulid in this stduy to simulate and analyze the stability of urban bike-sharing system under different development scenarios in the future.and based on the results,countermeasures are propose for the future development of urban bike-sharing system,thereby improving its stability.First,combined with the relevant data,a comparative analysis of Xi ’an public bike-sharing and corporate bike-sharing operating characteristics is carried out,the result shows that the investment and profit of the two are not proportional.It can be inferred that the government may adopt two strategies in the future: maintaining investment(retaining public bike-sharing)or canceling investment(withdrawing public bike-sharing).Corporate bike-sharing will adopt three strategies: raising prices,exiting the market,and neither raising prices nor exiting the market.Through the combination of different strategies of business entities,six scenarios which will affect the stable of urban bike-sharing system in the future can be obtained.Secondly,in order to explore the influence of different scenarios of urban bike-sharing system,this paper proposes the concept of stability of urban bike-sharing system according to the basic principle of system stability,and the theoretical method of system dynamics is used to construct a stability of urban bike-sharing system SD model of the interaction among the three subsystems: public bike-sharing,corporate bike-sharing,and user travel options.Combined with xi ’an statistical yearbook,comprehensive traffic survey data analysis and related data of public bike-sharing,the parameters in the model were calibrated using linear regression and direct assignment methods.Then,the model is verified by comparing the errors between the model operation data and the actual data,and the stability of the urban bike-sharing system under different scenarios in the future is simulated and analyzed by using the model on this basis.The simulation results show that :(1)the urban shared bike travel system will be in an unstable state with the price of corporate bike-sharing increase or corporate bike-sharing exit from the market when the government cancels the investment.(2)Although the price increase or withdrawal of corporate bike-sharing will have a certain impact on the urban bike-sharing system,the overall system tends to be stable when the government keeps the investment in the public bike-sharing.Therefore,the conclusion is drawn that the government should maintain the investment in the public bike system,so as to ensure the stable development of the future urban bike-sharing system.Finally,from the three aspects of reducing operating costs,increasing revenue,and increasing user utilization,this paper proposes countermeasures for the future development of public bike-sharing system in response to the government’s heavy pressure on its financial subsidies.