| With the gradual improvement of highway network,more and more bridges and culverts enter the maintenance cycle.Due to the shortage of maintenance funds,minor repair project is the most frequent maintenance category in the restorative maintenance.How to allocate maintenance funds and provide reasonable maintenance suggestions to managers has become a key issue in the process of bridge and culvert maintenance management.Therefore,based on the bill of quantities data of 11 expressways under the jurisdiction of Shaanxi transportation construction group,including Shangshang expressway,shangman expressway,Xichang expressway,Xizhen expressway,Xishang expressway,Jingwang expressway,yanzhiwu expressway,ring expressway,Wujing expressway,yusui Expressway and Shenfu Expressway from 2007 to 2017,this paper studies the following aspects:(1)Based on the analysis of the historical data of the bill of quantities of the minor repair works of the highway bridges and culverts,the cost of the minor repair works of the bridges and culverts is divided into the sum of the minor repair costs of each component,and the frequency of minor repair of each component of the bridges and culverts is calculated.(2)Based on the analysis of the historical data of minor repair works of the expressway from 2007 to 2015,and based on the idea of grey correlation degree,the influencing factors of each item cost in the bill of quantities of minor repair works of bridges and culverts are determined as follows: opening period,length of bridges and culverts,annual average daily equivalent axle number,annual average rainfall,annual average temperature,regional factors and lane width of the area where the bridge is located,According to the correlation coefficient,the influence degree of each influencing factor is determined.(3)Taking each influencing factor as an independent variable,ridge regression and lasso regression are carried out for each item cost with complete data in the bill of quantities of minor repair of bridges and culverts.In the process of regression,firstly,we preprocess the cost of each item,including price index conversion and cost skewness test;secondly,we preprocess the explanatory variables of the cost of each item,including: preprocessing of category characteristics,preprocessing of traffic volume data,dimensionless processing of explanatory variables,multicollinearity test between features,Division of training set and test set;and then,based on the regression model,we analyze the cost of each item Finally,according to the goodness of fit(R2),the optimal model is selected as the cost prediction model for minor repair of bridge and culvert components.(4)In view of the short service life of the expressway,the frequency of minor repair of each component of the bridge and culvert is low and different.The frequency of minor repair of each component of the bridge and culvert of each expressway is taken as the coefficient of the component cost prediction model,and the total cost prediction model of minor repair of the bridge and culvert of the expressway is obtained after multiplying.(5)Based on the actual value of minor repair works of bridges and culverts in 2016 and2017,the output value of the minor repair cost model of each component of bridges and culverts and the output value of the total cost model of minor repair works of bridges and culverts are tested,and the absolute error and average absolute percentage error are compared and analyzed,and the Wilcoxon signed rank test is carried out.The results show that the prediction model is reliable.The accurate prediction of bridge and culvert minor repair cost can not only provide decision-making suggestions for highway maintenance managers,but also promote the development of intelligent transportation,which has very important theoretical and practical significance. |
