Study On Scenario Analysis And Risk Prevention Of Urban Community Fire Emergency

The social and economic development accelerates the increase of population density,the increasing number and height of residential buildings,and the increasingly complex building structure and function,which makes emergencies easy to produce chain reaction,obvious complexity characteristics and potential derivative hazards in urban communities,among which fire emergencies occur more frequently and cause greater harm in urban communities.By studying the scenario analysis and risk prevention of urban community fire emergencies,we can fully grasp the development law of urban community fire emergencies,realize the prevention of urban community fire emergencies in advance,and deal with them quickly.It is helpful to reduce the probability of fire and reduce the loss caused by fire.In this paper,we choose the Beijing 12345 "public complaints have been processed without delay" text letter content which can directly reflect the needs of citizens,depict the status quo of urban communities,and truly reflect the fire hazards existing in communities,as well as the historical fire accident report which contains the knowledge of the nature of the emergency itself and the evolution law of the scene.On this basis,through taking grounded theory research method to carry on the city community fire scene information element extraction,finally obtained 131 concepts,39 categories,12 main categories and 3 core categories,finally will sum up three kinds of scene direction:the disaster situation element set,the disaster situation element set as this article city community fire accident scene database.In this paper,the risk of urban community fire is taken as the scene before the accident,and the risk that affects the size of the fire after the fire is taken as the scene after the accident.the set of four types of scenario elements are specifically separated from the constructed scenario library: scenario state(S),external environment(E),disaster response(R),and disposal target(T),and then the urban community fire scenario evolution is constructed by dynamic bayesian network.Taking the case of electric vehicle indoor charging fire such as "4.25" Daxing fire accident as an analysis case,this paper discusses the scenario analysis and risk prevention of this kind of urban community fire emergency.The situational network node variables finally determined in this paper mainly include 18 scenario states,11 external environments,11 disaster responses and 11 disposal targets.The trend deduction process of this kind of fire emergency is realized by dynamic bayesian networks,and the risk prevention measures are given according to the model results,which verifies the feasibility and practicability of the research method.This paper makes some exploratory research work for urban community emergency risk prevention in the future,and provides scientific and accurate decision support for urban community emergency managers.