| Bus is one of the most important means of public transport in the city.It is one of the main modes of transportation for citizens in the city,which plays a basic role in the operation of the city.Accordingly,the security of urban buses is an important issue.It is of great significance to analyze the causes of road traffic accidents and carry out countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents and improve road traffic safety.Based on the theory of data mining and association analysis,this paper studies the characteristics and causes of bus accident data in Changzhou City for six consecutive years from the aspects of space-time characteristics and human factors.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the internal relationship and hidden information between the data,and to explore the potential value of the data,so as to provide decision-making basis for public transport management departments.The work of this paper is as follows.(1)Determine the analysis method of this paper.Through a brief introduction and comparative analysis of the basic concepts and knowledge background of data mining and association rules,the classic Apriori algorithm in association analysis is used to complete data mining,and the analysis method of a large amount of data of bus accidents in Changzhou from 2013 to 2018 is clarified.(2)Data preprocessing and visualization.According to the complexity characteristics of Changzhou bus traffic accident case data,the data of bus traffic accident are abstracted,including data attribute division and formal attribute definition;in order to intuitively display a large number of data of Changzhou bus accident from 2013 to 2018,the histogram,line chart,pie chart and scatter chart of echards are used to visualize the data For further analysis and research.(3)Using the method of data perspective to deal with massive data.There are more than50000 items in the bus accident data from 2013 to 2018.By means of data perspective,the similar data are processed by keyword ambiguity and merging.(4)Comprehensive analysis of multiple factors.In the 12 variables of vehicle length,driving age,age,weather,braking mode,suspension mode,education background,political outlook,road conditions,accident causes,casualties and vehicle damage,the paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of two or more influencing factors to study the effect of multiple variables.(5)Weka experiment and result analysis.Through the Weka data mining platform,this paper makes an experimental exploration and result analysis on the bus accident data of Changzhou City from 2013 to 2018.The conclusions are as follows:(1)For novice drivers with less than 3 years’ driving experience,the main causes of the accidents are sharp braking bumps and wrong judgment;(2)The main cause of accidents for older drivers is speeding,and there is a high correlation between the occurrence time of speeding and the time interval between 13:00 and18:00;(3)Passengers over 60 years old tend to get injured in the bus,the main reasons contain bus driver’s sudden braking and bumping,negligence,and the elderly’s do not pull the armrests and change seats;(4)Spring and winter are the periods of high incidence of accidents,and the accidents in the second half of the year are increasing month by month.Through the method of multivariate analysis of variance,it was found that gender,education background,driving age and age had no significant influence on casualties,but age and driving age,age,driving age and education had significant cross effects on casualties(f(31)= 1.54,P = 0.028;f(88)= 1.4,Age,education background and gender,age and education had significant cross effects on vehicle injury(f(40)= 1.4,P = 0.047;f(29)= 1.64,P = 0.013),and education had significant influence on vehicle damage(f(7)= 6.33,P <0.001).Drivers with junior high school,high school and junior college education cause more vehicle damage,while those with bachelor’s degree,secondary technical education and vocational school education cause less vehicle damage than the above three types of drivers.Whether it is sunny,rainy or snowy,the total number of traffic accidents caused by other reasons is the most in general intersections.On sunny days,the cause of traffic accidents on general roads is overtaking,and negligence of thought is another main factor that can cause traffic accidents in most road conditions.It can be seen that the number of casualties caused by traffic accidents at intersections,entrances and exits and turns is higher than that caused by other reasons.The number of casualties caused by traffic accidents caused by overtaking vehicles and small front distance is relatively small. |
