Research On Island Multi-energy System Planning Considering Energy Supply Reliability

With the development of island tourism,the traditional island energy supply can no longer meet the demand of energy,and the current reliability assessment methods and capacity planning schemes of the island’s electricity,gas,and thermal systems only consider a single energy system.The coupling and restriction between different energy sources are not fully considered.In order to solve these probloms and ensure the reliability and cost of the island multi-energy system,this dissertation constructs the basic framework of the island multi-energy system including electricity,gas,and heat subsystems,and proposes a reliability evaluation method for the island multi-energy system.A capacity planning model for island multi-energy systems that harmonizes reliability and cost is developed.The main studies of this dissertation are as follows:(1)The overall structure and modeling analysis of the island multi-energy system.In order to realize the collaborative optimization and complementarity between different energy sources,improve the flexibility and reliability of system operation.This dissertation constructs an island multi-energy system including wind turbines,photovoltaic units,P2 G devices,gas turbines,electric boilers,batteries,gas storage devices,and heat storage devices.Based on the mathematical modeling,the energy hinge model containing electricity,gas,and heat subsystems,is also constructed through energy transfer equipment,laying the foundation for the reliability assessment and capacity planning research of the island’s multi-energy system.(2)Research on reliability assessment of island multi-energy systems.In order to analyze the influence of factors such as different energy storage methods and equipment capacity on the reliability of the island multi-energy system,and to improve the existing island multi-energy system energy supply reliability indicators,this dissertation proposes the reliability index of the island multi-energy system,based on the reliability modeling of coupled equipment and the probability model of electricity,gas and heat load.Secondly,combined with the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method to sample the random variables of the system,the reliability evaluation method of the island multi-energy system is proposed,and the reliability evaluation process of the island multi-energy system is designed.Finally,a numerical example is used to verify the rationality of the method proposed in this chapter.(3)Research on capacity planning of island multi-energy systems considering energy supply reliability constraints.In order to solve the problem of reliability and economic synergy in the planning and operation of island multi-energy system with high proportion of renewable energy sources connected to the grid,a capacity planning strategy for island multi-energy system considering the reliability of energy supply is proposed,and a capacity planning model for island multi-energy system is established with the objective function of minimizing the total daily cost and minimizing the comprehensive energy supply reliability index in the planning cycle of island multi-energy system,taking into account the power balance constraints of electricity,gas and heat loads and unit operation constraints in the system,and solved by multi-objective differential optimization algorithm.Finally,a simulation example is used to analyze the impact of the system equipment capacity configuration results under different planning schemes on the operating reliability and economy of the island multi-energy system,which verifies the feasibility of the model built in this chapter.