Research On System Dynamics Estimation Method Of Intelligent Construction Cost Of High-Speed Railway

With the continuous advancement of intelligent construction of high-speed railway,the influence of the degree of intelligence on the construction cost of railway engineering has become increasingly obvious.High-speed railway projects with high cost and intensive technology are more vulnerable to the impact of new technologies.BIM+GIS,big data and technologies continue to enlarge the traditional construction ways.The cost of intelligent construction of high-speed railway is influenced by multiple elements,which presents the evolution mechanism and trend characteristics of non-linearity,uncertainty,mutability,non-balance,spatial,coupling,etc.It is a nonlinear complex system with multiple loops.However,the traditional linear and lag quota cost estimation model can not adapt to the nonlinear and coupling time sequence evolution characteristics and laws of high-speed railway intelligent construction cost,and the inaccurate estimation leads to the problems such as the middle standard of international bidding for high-speed railway and the overestimation of high-speed railway.In order to solve the above problems,based on the analysis of the influencing factors of the intelligent construction cost of high-speed railway,this paper plans to build the SD estimation model of the intelligent construction cost,so as to improve the effectiveness and accuracy of the cost estimation and the efficiency of construction plan.In order to study the content of the nonlinear estimation of the intelligent construction cost of railway,a nonlinear method suitable for the evolution characteristics and laws of the intelligent construction cost of railway is sought,in order to achieve the accuracy and effectiveness of the cost estimation.Through literature retrieval and analysis,this paper analyzes the main influencing factors of the construction cost of intelligent high-speed railway in the preliminary design stage from five perspectives: construction and installation cost components,external environment factors,engineering technology factors,mechanization degree and intelligence degree.The comprehensiveness and accuracy of the influencing factors were tested by Delphi method.On this basis,through the high-speed railway construction practitioners and related fields of scientific research workers issued and recovered more than 200 questionnaires,the reliability and validity analysis were all passed.Based on this,structural equation model is used,we studied the characteristics and rules of the factors that influence the construction cost of railway intelligent construction.Finally,the 10 hypotheses proposed in this paper are validated.Collect data of high-speed railway and similar projects,conduct regional adjustment of data and other processing,and establish a sample database of intelligent construction cost of high-speed railway.According to the characteristics of system dynamics model suitable for dealing with nonlinear and multi-loop problems,based on the analysis of influence factors,a nonlinear system dynamics model for intelligent construction cost estimation of high-speed railway is established.Since both quantitative data and class data are included,K-Prototype clustering analysis method is used to perform cluster analysis on the sample database,and parameter data such as labor cost ratio in the SD model are obtained.The entropy method is used to determine the weight of each parameter of the partial parametric equation.Some parameter is difficult to collect basis lead to less information in the database,based on the data characteristics of such parameters,choose the GM(1,1)model to predict some parameter values,finally combining the above methods and practical engineering information,estimating high-speed intelligent construction cost,the internal system adheres to the accuracy requirements of the estimation results with actual errors and verifies the accuracy and effectiveness of the model.Based on the degree of intelligence and the analysis in Chapter 3,the optimization control of the intelligent construction cost of high-speed railway is studied from the changes of the three parameters of the intelligent level of site management,the intelligent level of enterprise management and the degree of information construction.It is concluded that the three parameters have negative feedback effect on the cost,that is,with the increase of intelligence,the cost decreases.At the same time,it is concluded that it is necessary to control the reduction of informationization degree,otherwise there will be super risk.The model established in this paper provides decision support for intelligent construction cost management of high-speed railway.