Analysis On Water Utilization Structure Change And Forecasting In Anhui Province

Water resources play an indispensable role in the process of the human survival and the social and economic development.Under the influence of accelerating urbanization process,the demand for water resources in various provinces is getting higher and higher,and water shortages are increasingly significant,which severely restricts the development of social economy in our country.Agriculture has been one of the industries with the largest contribution rate of GDP in Anhui Province,abundant water resources for the development of agriculture in Anhui Province play an important role,therefore,it is of great significance to study the change of regional water utilization structure and effectively predict the development direction of water utilization structure for Anhui Province to realize rational allocation of water utilization structure,alleviate water shortage and other aspects,and at the same time,it can also make the regional economy achieve sustainable development.This paper was based on the statistical data of water consumption and influencing factors of water utilization structure change in Anhui Province from 1999 to 2018.Firstly,this paper analyzed the changing trend of water utilization structure in Anhui Province and the influencing factors of the change of water utilization structure in Anhui Province.Then,the characteristics of the spatial correlation network of water utilization structure in Anhui Province was analyzed.Finally,water utilization structure of Anhui Province was forecast by establishing each prediction model,and the prediction accuracy of each model was compared.The following conclusions were drawn:(1)The change trend of the water utilization structure in Anhui Province from1999 to 2018 was analyzed by information entropy theory and equilibrium degree theory.The results showed that the proportion of agricultural water was highest,the proportion of agricultural water showed an overall trend of decline,the proportion of industrial water,domestic water and ecological water showed an overall trend of increase.Both the information entropy and the equilibrium degree of water utilization structure in Anhui Province showed an overall trend of increase.The information entropy and the equilibrium degree of water utilization structure of all cities in Anhui Province in 2011 and 2018 were different from each other.(2)By the gray correlation method analyzing influencing factors of the change of water utilization structure in Anhui Province from 1999 to 2018,and the results showed that the end of the total population,urban population proportion,total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,precipitation,temperature,grain output and effective irrigation area of the eight indicators were the main influencing factors of the change of water utilization structure in Anhui Province.(3)The spatial network characteristics of the information entropy of water utilization structure and its changing trend in Anhui Province were analyzed by social network analysis method to indirectly reflect the spatial network characteristics of water utilization structure and its changing trend.The results showed that the spatial correlation network of the information entropy of water utilization structure in some years in Anhui Province has a stable form during 1999-2018.The correlation number and network density of the spatial network of the information entropy of water utilization structure in Anhui Province all showed a decreasing trend.The network correlation degree and the network grade remained stable in most years,indicating that the network structure tended to be stable and the network structure was strictly hierarchical.The network efficiency was generally on the rise,but generally on the decline in the recent three years.In 2018,the ranking of degree,closeness and betweenness all showed high consistency.Among them,Hefei,Maanshan and Wuhu ranked the top three under these three indexes.(4)BP neural network model,GM(1,1)model,Exponential Smoothing model and Gray-exponential model were used to forecast the information entropy of water utilization structure from 1999 to 2016 in Anhui Province to achieve the purpose of forecasting water utilization structure.The results showed that these four models could all be used to forecast the information entropy of water utilization structure of Anhui Province,BP neural network model was the model with the highest prediction accuracy.On this basis,the information entropy of water utilization structure in Anhui Province during 2017-2018 was predicted,and the absolute value of relative error of BP neural network model prediction was the minimum.Therefore,the best model for predicting water utilization structure in Anhui Province is BP neural network model.