Research On Wind Power Scene Generation Method Based On MCMC And Its Application In Power Grid Operation

With the steady growth of energy demand and the increasingly prominent impact of the "three highs" problem,our country’s energy and power development is facing the dual challenges of ensuring sustained and stable supply and accelerating the transition to clean and low-carbon.Vigorously developing wind power is one of the keys to solving energy security problems and advancing the green and low-carbon transition.However,as the capacity of grid-connected wind farms increases,the uncertainty of its output will have a greater impact on the system.The wind power characteristics analysis and typical scenery generation are the basic conditions for accurately assessing the impact of its randomness on the power system.Based on summarizing the current domestic and international wind power output characteristics analysis,wind power generation methods,and the current status of wind power acceptance assessment based on peak shaving analysis,this paper analyzes the randomness,volatility,and spatiotemporal correlation properties of wind power output.A new wind power generation method has been proposed,and a simulation method for midto long-term wind power accommodation evaluation based on the wind power simulation model has been studied,and an example is verified based on a provincial power grid.The main research contents are:(1)Analyze the random change characteristics of the wind power sequence,from the three aspects of distribution characteristics,volatility and correlation,analyze the impact on the safe and stable operation of the system,and study the wind power characteristics of an actual power grid.(2)The wind power output time series modeling method was studied,and a new method of wind power generation based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model(MCMC)was proposed.By comparing the wind power output time series and history established by the method proposed in this paper.The degree of consistency of the wind power output time series verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.(3)Using the previous wind power series simulation modeling method,a time series production simulation study on the wind power accommodation evaluation of power grid will be conducted.Taking a provincial power grid as an example,the annual wind power accommodation capacity of the power system was studied.Through the above work,this paper has conducted an in-depth study on the causes,characteristics,modeling and application of the randomness and volatility of wind power time series,and a set of wind power stochastic description methods suitable for mid-and long-term power system operation evaluation analysis is established,which provides technical support for large-scale wind power grid connection.