Human Reliability Analysis Of Ship Pilot

Port pilotage is a symbol of national sovereignty.It is the core of ensuring the safety of ports,ships and facilities,and an important barrier to ensure the safe and efficient operation of ports.In the face of the large-scale and rapid development trend of ships,ship pilotage accidents will cause losses to people’s lives and property,as well as damage to the marine environment.Ship pilots are the core of port pilotage system,their safety and reliability directly affect the safety of water traffic,pilot human factor reliability is also an urgent problem to be solved.The International Maritime Organization formulated international conventions and required contracting parties to implement them in order to prevent accidents.Among them,the analysis of the reliability of the pilot’s human factors is an important content of the convention^[1].Studying the human factor reliability of ship pilots is an important measure to ensure the safety of life and property and prevent water pollution.It has great theoretical and practical significance to promote the safe development of the water transportation industry.At present,the research on the reliability of ship pilot’s human factors still stays at the level of qualitative analysis,and lacks comprehensive qualitative and quantitative research.From a systematic perspective,this thesis conducts an in-depth deconstruction and analysis of ship pilot’s human reliability.The main research contents include:（1）The characteristics of ship pilotage operations are analyzed in detail.Through on-site investigation,pilot interviews and literature review methods,the characteristics of ship piloting operations are summarized from four aspects:ship piloting system composition,piloting operation process,pilot cognitive tasks,and characteristics of piloting accidents.（2）A qualitative analysis model for human error of ship pilot is constructed.According to the organization orientation,aiming at the characteristics of ship pilotage operations,by improving the HFACS model,and combining the information processing model and the team dynamic response model,a cognitive-based human error analysis and classification system（HEACS-MPA）model for maritime pilotage accidents is constructed.（3）The reliability index system of ship pilot’s emergency behavior is established.Use the marine pilotage accident human error analysis and classification system model to conduct in-depth analysis of the collected pilotage accident reports,sort out the formation mechanism of pilotage accidents,identify human error patterns in pilotage accidents,and dig out behaviors of different human error patterns Formation factors;Finally,use the index screening model to screen out the behavior formation factors that affect the pilot’s emergency behavior,and establish an index system for the quantitative prediction model.（4）The reliability prediction model of ship pilot’s emergency behavior is constructed.Establish a BP neural network for ship pilot’s emergency behavior,and use the improved BP algorithm to optimize the network structure,build a BP neural network prediction model for ship pilot’s emergency behavior reliability based on the improved BP algorithm,and inspect it through the test set The generalization ability and stability of the trained model for unseen samples.The qualitative analysis model of ship pilot’s human error and the reliability prediction model of emergency behavior constructed in this thesis have certain practicability and innovation.It can provide a theoretical basis and reference for the analysis of human error in the water transportation system,so as to improve the safety level and safety management capabilities of ships in port waters.