Configuration Optimization Method Of Building Energy System Considering Uncertainties Of Weather And Human Behavior

Reasonable configuration of building energy system can effectively reduce the cost of building operation and improve building energy efficiency and environmental friendliness.However,during the building energy system planning,there are many uncertain factors,such as weather,occupancy,on/off status of equipment,etc.,which will have an obvious impact on the configuration of building energy system.In this paper,the impact of the above uncertainties on the configuration of building energy system is considered.Scene method is used to model the uncertainties of weather and human behavior,and a scenario-based bi-level optimal configuration model of building energy system is proposed.The main work of this paper is as follows:1)A scenario construction method considering uncertainties of weather and human behavior is proposed.First,the K-Medoids clustering method is used to form the basic scenario for the weather data.On this basis,the Markov chain theory and the probability model based on the human perception are used to establish the uncertainty model of the occupancy and the starting and stopping of the equipment.Considering the difference between the working day and the non-working day,a scenario set supporting the optimal configuration of the building energy system is finally constructed.2)A bi-level optimal configuration model of building energy system based on scenario analysis is proposed.The upper model optimizes the capacity of energy supply equipment with the goal of lowest total cost of equal annual value.The lower level model is based on the scenario set constructed to optimize the scheduling plan of alternative energy supply equipment with the goal of lowest annual operating cost.By introducing scenario sets,the effects of weather and human behavior uncertainty on the optimal configuration results are effectively taken into account.3)Though a typical office building model,the validity of the proposed model is verified.The model can reflect the uncertainty in the process of building energy system allocation.Through the analysis of different conditions,it can be seen that the price of battery and other equipment,personnel attendance and office work and rest conditions have a greater impact on the configuration results.The model and research results in this paper can provide some reference for the follow-up research.