An Agent-based Diffusion Modeling And Simulation Of New Energy Vehicles

With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization,the problems of high fuel consumption,high pollution and high emission caused by the transportation industry have become an urgent problem to be solved by the government.The promotion of new energy vehicles replacing traditional fuel vehicles is of great significance in China.At present,the promotion of new energy vehicles in China relies heavily on the support of the government policies.However,with the gradual decline of government subsidies,how can the market play an effective role? This will be an important issue worthy of study in the process of continuous promotion and development of new energy automobile industry.This thesis aims to determine how new energy vehicle(NEV)market diffusion is affected by consumers’ intentions.A theoretically-based and empirical-driven agentbased model of the NEV adoption is presented.After acquiring the individual dynamic decision model,a small-world network is created to simulate the social relationship among consumers in NEV market,this thesis designs the agent-based diffusion mechanism and applies the model architecture to explore the development path of NEV market in Tianjin,China.Results are verified by government planning and other authors.Social network,weak ties,NEV cost and attitude uncertainty are identified as important driving factors of NEV adoptions through the sensitivity analysis.Based on the analysis,some relevant policy suggestions and marketing strategies are put forward.