Study On The Dynamic Decision Mechanism Of Travel Path Considering Information Acceptance Behavior

Route selection is a typical complex network system problem,which is related to the economy of individual travel decision-making from the micro level,to the rationality of road network assignment prediction from the meso level,and to the scientificity of traffic behavior policies and regulations from the macro level.Whether it’s the meso distribution forecast of road network or the formulation of macro policies and regulations,its essence is still the uncertainty choice of micro individual travel scheme.This uncertainty is reflected in the dynamic process of individual travel decision-making,the real-time basis of decision-making,the limited rationality of decision-making methods and the heterogeneity of information receiving behavior.Therefore,it has important practical and theoretical value to study the path selection model considering the information acceptance behavior.In this paper,the heterogeneous individual path selection under the information background is taken as the research object,and the traffic behavior experiment and traffic simulation experiment are taken as the research methods to carry out the following three aspects of research.1.Construction and calibration of a hybrid discrete model of travel information reception behavior.Based on the theory of technology acceptance and structural equation model,this paper analyzes the relationship between the potential variables of travel information acceptance behavior and the acceptance behavior,constructs the multi-level structural equation model of individual level information acceptance behavior,extracts the causal relationship between the potential variables of information acceptance behavior and the obvious variables of traveler’s personal characteristics,and combines the utility of the maximum utility theory to the discrete choice model The function is improved to construct a discrete choice hybrid model of travel decision-making behavior,which includes the potential variables of information psychological perception and the explicit variables of traditional travel scheme characteristics.An integrated parameter calibration algorithm is designed.2.Multi-stage dynamic division and path selection modeling of travel path.According to the psychological decision-making process of travel path selection behavior,the whole process of single-stage path decision-making based on the starting point to the end point of travel is transformed into dynamic multi-stage road section decision-making based on the key nodes of the road network.The global path is composed of the road sections from the current decision point to the next decision point in each stage of the optimal path.Based on the traffic time distribution expectation of the derived path of the current decision node,the weighted processing is used as the reference point setting basis of the current decision stage.Based on the theory of cumulative prospect,a travel path selection model is established,which is composed of path travel time,reference point and probability weight function.The trend of group risk preference was obtained by questionnaire survey,and the related parameters of prospect theory were calibrated by non aggregate model.3.Empirical analysis based on behavior experiment and simulation experiment.Based on the idea and process of economic behavior experiment,a multi-stage behavior experiment module considering the behavior of receiving travel information is built to realize the representation and track record of the behavior of route selection.Based on the multi-agent model,the simulation modules of information acceptance behavior model and dynamic phase path selection behavior are developed,which interact with the data of behavior experiment module synchronously,carry out model parameter calibration and behavior result prediction.Adjust the travel scenario coefficient,conduct multiple rounds of experiments for the same traveler,compare and analyze the differences between the real data and the experimental data under the same conditions,and complete the accuracy test and parameter correction of the theoretical model.The results show that: 1)the subjects with different information receiving behaviors show significant differences in the travel path choice behavior experiment.Compared with the subjects without information receiving behavior,the average time-consuming of the subjects with information receiving behavior decreased by 14.3% and the average income increased by 135.9%.2)The mixed discrete model of information acceptance behavior and the dynamic multi-stage model of route are more accurate to describe the micro information acceptance behavior and the process of route selection.Among them,the accuracy of the mixed discrete model of travel information receiving behavior is98.0%,and the relative accuracy of the dynamic multi-stage decision-making model is96.7% and 67.6% in each behavior situation;3)there are dynamic decision-making behavior and individual heterogeneity in the process of path selection.