Analysis And Prediction Study On The Influencing Factors Of The Freight Volume Of The Lower Jinsha River

The Jinsha River Basin is rich in minerals.The main outbound goods are coal,steel,ore,and chemicals.The demand for outbound materials is hundreds of millions of tons per year,and the amount of existing waterborne goods is very different from it.Contradictions are outstanding.The development of shipping is seriously lagging behind.If the Jinsha River shipping can be developed reasonably,the Yangtze River shipping can be extended to the Jinsha River.This will inject a strong impetus into the economic development of the southwestern region with poor transportation.Economic development plays an important role.Predicting the freight volume of the Jinsha River Basin based on resource reserves and production will be the basis for demonstrating the necessity of the development and construction of the Jinsha River Shipping and the development of the entire Jinsha River Basin.(1)This article mainly studies the current development of shipping in the Jinsha River Basin,analyzes the natural and historical conditions of the Jinsha River,analyzes the physical geography of Jinsha River,the current status of waterway development,and the resource overview of the Jinsha River Basin.Store information.Screen out the main types of goods in the river basin,calculate their annual output and draw them into a distribution map,count the production and transportation of corresponding goods across the country,and analyze the production and transportation relations of various goods across the country.Introducing the current situation of economic development and transportation development in the hinterland of the Jinsha River Basin.(2)This paper collects national coal,oil and natural gas resource reserves and resource production data,analyzes the relationship between national resource reserves and resource production,resource production and transportation,compares the resource production relationship,production and transportation relationship in the Jinsha River Basin,and draws the Jinsha River basin storage and production relationship The reason why the relationship between production and transportation is lower than that of the whole country is that the per capita railway mileage of the Jinsha River Basin is lower than that of the whole country.Inconvenient transportation restricts the transportation of resources.Influencing factors such as economy,resources,population,consumption,and fixed investment are selected from the factors affecting the national freight volume,and the gray correlation model is used to calculate the correlation between each influencing factor and the freight volume,and the correlation is obtained by ranking the correlation degree Influencing factors of higher degree.(3)Establish a national Bayesian network model,introduce the Bayesian network structure and the probability calculation of Bayesian nodes.The Bayesian prediction model was used to predict the growth of freight volume in the country from 2011 to2018,and the accuracy of the prediction based on the Bayesian prediction model was verified through official data comparison.(4)A freight volume forecasting model based on Bayesian network in the Jinsha River Basin was established,and the forecast value of the main freight volume of the lower reaches of the Jinsha River was obtained through the model calculation and prediction.