| This study evaluates the operational performance of all routes of Sajha Yatayat operating inside Kathmandu valley using Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA).The operational performance is evaluated from a productive efficiency and effectiveness point of view.This approach allows us to access the relative performance of transit system in absence of historical data and research to compare with.Same input but different output variables was adopted to match the availability and compatibility of the data for measuring efficiency and effectiveness separately.Average travel time per round trip(hours),Average number of operators per day,Average number of buses per day,Total number of stops(round trip)were the selected input variables and vehicle kilometers per day(efficiency measure)and average passengers per day(effectiveness measure)were the selected output variables.Output oriented BCC model DEA was applied in the study to ensure our main objective to maximize the output level for satisfying the demand.DEA results points the system currently to be operating fairly with no inefficient and ineffective routes and ready to serve high demands.Sensitivity analysis reveals the DEA model applied in the study to be robust.To explore the possibilities of enhancing the performance and future development,set of scenarios were created for relatively underperforming routes,long route problem and expansion of efficient and effective routes by changing the most important input variable and output variables accordingly with linear regression model where it was relevant.Partial Least Squares(PLS)regression was used to determine the most influential input variables towards the output variables on the basis of Variable Importance in Projection(VIP).Value of changing input variables were increased by 1,2 and 3 under scenario sets 1 and 3 whereas route alignment was changed under scenario set 2.DEA was conducted to access the performance of all routes under these scenarios.Relatively underperforming routes except the longest route under the first set of scenarios,emerge to be better performing efficiently without considerable negative deviation in effectiveness.The result of second set of scenarios for long route problem suggests that the longest route’s performance can be enhanced significantly upon proper route alignment.Scenario set 3 were suitable to be implemented for future expansion of service without any significant negative impact upon the system performance.Scenarios development and evaluation can help lead transit companies to explore the strategies to facilitates operational performance enhancement. |