Research On The Evolution And Forecast Of Beijing’s Electricity Demand Under The Non-capital Function Relief Policy

With the continuous advancement of Beijing’s industrialization and urban process,the excessive concentration of population and functions has led to a series of "big city diseases"affecting the healthy development of the city,such as congestion and congestion of urban roads,and environmental pollution,which have seriously hindered the function of Beijing Optimization and quality improvement.In 2014,General Secretary Xi inspected the operation and dispatch of Beijing’s subway and other rail transit,and the current living conditions of the people.He proposed that non-capital functions should be relieved to promote the coordinated and healthy development of various regions.Beijing has promulgated and implemented a series of policy measures for the orderly promotion of the deconstruction of non-capital functions.The deconstruction of non-capital functions is mainly the deconstruction of the existing industries in Beijing,and the regulation of the addition of various industries.Through the orderly deconstruction of industries,the deconstruction of the population will be promoted,and the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure will be promoted.This makes Beijing’s economic structure and industrial structure more compatible with Beijing’s urban function positioning.The adjustment of economic structure and industrial structure will have a great impact on the electricity demand of various industries,and the electricity demand of various industries will show different characteristics of changes.Analyzing the evolution characteristics of electricity demand by industries in Beijing under the deconstruction of non-capital functions,and forecasting the electricity demand of various industries,is of great significance to scientifically formulating Beijing’s power grid plan and ensuring that the development of electricity meets the healthy development of the economy.Based on this,on the basis of previous research results,this article sorts out the relevant policies and implementation effects of non-capital function deconstruction,and analyzes the mechanism of the impact of non-capital function deconstruction on electricity demand.This paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of electricity demand in Beijing under the deconstruction of non-capital functions from three levels:electricity consumption,electricity consumption structure,and electricity consumption growth contribution.On this basis,in accordance with the development characteristics of various industries and various policies and measures for the relief of non-capital functions,a differentiated influencing factor set of influencing factors of electricity demand in various industries is constructed.According to the characteristics of the sample size in this paper,an improved SSA-LSSVM forecasting model is constructed to forecast the future electricity demand in Beijing.The analysis results of this article show that since the de-capitalization of non-capital functions,the growth rate of electricity consumption in other industries has slowed down except for the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents and the construction industry.Electricity consumption for urban and rural residents has become a key industry driving the increase in demand for electricity in Beijing.Information transmission,computer services and software industries,public utilities,and management organizations have become potential growth points driving the increase in electricity demand in Beijing.With the implementation and gradual implementation of various policies for non-capital function relief,the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in Beijing will increase from 2020 to 2025.Information transmission,computer services and software industries,public utilities,and management organizations have gradually shown their role in driving the growth of electricity demand in Beijing,and they have become key industries driving Beijing’s electricity demand.In addition,judging from the forecast results under the influence of the 2020 epidemic,the information transmission,computer services and software industries have bucked the trend and performed outstandingly,becoming the fastest-growing industries in various sub-sectors.The main innovations studied in this paper are:(1)Under the background of the implementation of non-capital functions,this paper analyzes the electricity consumption,electricity structure and electricity growth contribution of Beijing,and studies the evolution characteristics of electricity demand in Beijing under the decentralization of non-capital functions.(2)Combining various policy measures and industry development characteristics of non-capital function relief,construct a set of differentiated influencing factors that affect the electricity demand of various industries.(3)An improved SSA-LSSVM model is constructed,which reduces the number of iteration steps and adaptive function values during convergence,and at the same time makes the parameters better and improves the prediction accuracy.