Demand Forecast Of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Based On The Four-stage Method

With the successful application of distributed electric propulsion and remotely piloted system in e VTOL carriers in recent years,the idea of using aircraft with vertical take-off and landing capability to carry out urban air moibility to solve the problem of urban traffic congestion has been frequently raised again.The premise of realizing this new mode of transportation is to have an objective evaluation and reasonable planning,and the premise of operation and development is to have an objective prediction of its future traffic demand.This paper uses the four-stage method in the principle of traffic planning to forecast the demand of urban air traffic(UAM).Taking Chengdu as an example,this paper forecasts the traffic demand of UAM in the 4th Ring Road of Chengdu in the morning peak in 2025.Firstly,this paper discusses the development background,development direction,operation mode and influence on urban development of urban air traffic.These problems explain the necessity and possibility of urban air traffic development.Secondly,this paper improves the four-stage method for the demand prediction of urban air traffic,focusing on the division of the third stage traffic mode.In this paper,based on the stochastic utility theory,the two-layer NL model is combined with multinomial Logit model.On the one hand,the inherent IIA characteristics of Logit model are improved,and the prediction results are more in line with the reality.On the other hand,since UAM,a new mode of transportation,does not exist in the current urban traffic system,the combination of the two models avoids the problem of the unknown sharing rate of UAM among traffic districts.Finally,forecast and analyze the total volume of traffic demand,spatial distribution,and sharing rate of different traffic modes in the fourth ring road of Chengdu in2025.On this basis,the flow size of UAM in 2025 is calculated,and the calculation results are distributed to the road network.According to the distribution results of UAM on the road network,the suggestion of future UAM route layout in Chengdu is given.