The Energy And Power System Planning For Shen-hui-guan Region Under Uncertainty

In recent decades,It has become increasingly inseparable from the energy and electricity when the global economy and society develop rapidly.At the same time,the depletion of energy resources and the deterioration of the ecological environment have been accompanied.In the past 40 years of Chinese reform and opening up,especially,while improving people’s living standards,it has also caused a series of environmental damage that cannot be ignored.In recent years,with the improvement of people’s awareness of environmental protection,more and more scholars and research institutions have called on the society planing to use energy rationally,reducing pollution emissions,and increasing the use of clean energy as soon as possible.In one of the most economically developed areas in the country,the Shen-hui-guan area also faces problems such as environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions caused by rapid economic development.The root cause is mainly the irrational energy consumption structure,the weak integration of energy resources in the region,Factors were formed which are such as insufficient promotion of relevant policy funds.Therefore,it is very important to make reasonable energy and power system planning.In regional energy power systems,there are often many problems of uncertainty and complexity,so it is necessary to introduce suitable optimization methods to deal with them.The case in this study focuses on the energy and power system in the Shen-hui-guan region,analyzes the basic situation of power supply and demand,energy consumption characteristics,and environmental pollution status in the Shen-hui-guan region,and combines the development direction given by Shen-hui-guan region.Given the world energy price changing,it establishes a Shen-hui-guan regional energy and power system planning model.At the same time,two scenarios were set up according to the planning goals.Scenario 1 is to explore the situation under different probability of default pi without implementing the carbon emission quota system and based on the uncertainty opportunity constraint method.Scenario 2 is to implement carbon emissions in the entire Shen-hui-guan region Quota system.The study will compare optimization schemes in different scenarios and analyze their respective impacts on regional energy and power systems.The model results show that:(1)During the planning period,the proportion of traditional fossil energy power generation in the Shen-hui-guan region will gradually decrease,and the proportion of clean energy power generation and renewable energy power generation will increase steadily.Electricity interaction between cities has also gradually strengthened,and the transfer of surplus electricity in the region has increased.(2)In Scenario 1,as the probability of default for CO2 emissions increases,the emissions of CO2 and air pollutants in the region also increase the proportion of coal-fired power generation and gas-fired power generation increases,and the proportion of renewable energy power generation decreases,But the total cost of the system continues to decline.(3)In scenario 2,The introduction of a carbon emissions trading quota system in the Shen-hui-guan region can effectively reduce CO2 and atmospheric pollutant emissions,while eliminating outdated traditional fossil energy power generation technology units,promoting the development of renewable energy power generation technology and clean energy,but the total system cost has also increased significantly.Combining the economic-social-environmental factors of the Shen-hui-guan region,based on the research results of the Shen-hui-guan region,the introduction of a carbon emissions trading quota system is an effective measure to ensure energy conservation and emission reduction on the basis of energy and power supply.