Simulation Of Gas Pipeline Network Based On Load Forecasting

Gas pipeline network simulation plays an important role in structure optimization and management of the pipeline network.Realistic load used in the pipeline network simulation has a direct impact on the simulation results.Since the error between the forecasted and the actual load can be controlled in an acceptable range by the gas load forecasting,it is necessary to use the forecasted load in pipeline network simulation to improve the accuracy of predictive operation management of the pipeline network.Based on this,a BP-CSO gas hourly load forecasting model is established in this paper.The correlations between date type,weather conditions,temperature,time and gas load are analyzed in the load forecasting model.The weather conditions are quantified by the evaporation,sunshine hours,air pressure,precipitation,relative humidity and wind speed.The results demonstrate that the date type and weather conditions have no obvious influence on the hourly load,and the gas hourly load is significantly influenced by the temperature and time.The forecast model is used for a 336-hour continuous load forecasting of an engineering project in the Q district of W city.The MAPE value of the forecast result does not exceed 15%,and the 86% MAPE value is within 10%,which proves that the model is accurate and scientific.Another steady-state and dynamic simulation model of the gas pipeline network is established in MATLAB/Simulink.It is used in the simulation of actual engineering pipelines in combination with the gas load forecasting model.The simulation results show that the relative error between the outlet pressure of the secondary high-pressure pipeline and the actual pressure is within 15%,proving that the dynamic simulation model is reliable.The model is used for the analysis of the operation status of the pipeline network and the peak storage of gas storage.The results are as follows:to ensure the stable operation of the pipeline network,the hourly flow of the pipeline network should be controlled within 25000Nm~3/h if the gate station A in the Q district of W city was operated at a gas source pressure of 390 kPa;the hourly flow of the pipeline network should be controlled within 22000Nm~3/h if the gate station A was operated at a gas source pressure of 360 kPa,a fixed flow rate of the gas source can be selected if the upstream pipeline of gate station A runs at a high pressure of 3MPa;the gate station A can be operated at constant pressure if the maximum operating pressure of the upstream pipeline is 1MPa,because the gas storage capacity of the pipeline is too small to support the peak flow of constant flow operation.