The Research Of Ford China Wholesale Volume Forecast Accuracy Improvement Model

In recent years the rapid development of automotive industry,China is the largest car market from 2009 when is more than United States.China’s auto industry is changed significantly.The commercial car declines in the proportion,which means the passage car’s requirement,are increased.The passage car structure is also change from big sedan to big sedan and big SUV.The vehicle industry segmentation changes a lot,such as the Sedan growth has slowed,the growth of SUV is relatively rapid.Ford benefit from the rapid growth of China’s automotive industry,production capacity is also constantly upgrading.After the recent development in 3,4 years,Ford in China’s overall changed a lot.Ford enhance the brand influence,production line is also very rich,while the production capacity change from shortage to advantage.Ford original wholesale forecast model can’t meet the business requirements for the prediction accuracy.Ford need to develop a more accuracy model to forecast the wholesale volume to support the strong growth business in China.The content of this paper is as follows: the first chapter introduces the research background,research significance and research methods.The second chapter is the research status and the main references of the related scholars in this field.And this chapter also have a introduce Ford’s major vehicles.The third chapter introduces the history of Ford,Ford China’s current situation,Ford China’s existing sales volume by currently forecast model.It also lists the issue for the forecast accuracy.The fourth chapter analyzes the key indicators of the industry and market share.A new forecast model is designed to using the more accuracy segmentation volume and segmentation share.The fifth chapter is doing the testing for the forecast model for Ford Major Product Focus,Escort,Mondeo,Ecosport and Kuga.The sixth chapter is the overview and outlook.After the analysis of this paper,it is clear that the new sales forecast model of Ford is used more accurate market segmentation and market share.The dealer stock change forecast model is also updated to consider the inventory move.The new sales forecasting model considers the changes of each segment,and the segmentation share also considers the impact of the vehicle’s life cycle.Using the new sales forecasting model,the sales forecast variance is controllable under 5%,which can meet the Ford requirement of the accuracy.The paper analyzes the history data of China vehicle industry and Ford sales volume.Design the new forecast model after the data analyze.But the new model also has a lot of imperfections,such as no consideration of dealer volume,cities difference,brand influence and other factors on the impact of the forecast model.This needs to be done in the future research and on-going improving the forecast model.