Research On Reservoir Slope Deformation Prediction And Application

Along with the implementation of the strategic plan for developing the country west,which was proposed in the early 21st century,lots of hydropower station has been built to promote the West-East Electricity Transmission Project.Those livelihood projects improves the people’s wellbeing and also caused series of geological hazard problems,of which the reservoir landslide is the most serious and typical,because of the reason that it endangers the life and property safety of the people in the reservoir area.The research on monitoring and predicting landslide,which has achieved fruitful results since the 1960s,is an effective way to prevent or mitigate landslide in reservoir.However,due to the complexity of the landslide problem,it’s still a worldwide problem to predict the landslide timely,accurate and comprehensively.Meanwhile in the existing researches,the research results on predicting reservoir landslide is relatively few.Based on the reservoir slope monitoring data,this paper carries out the research on the prediction technology of the deformation of the reservoir slope,mainly including the following four aspects:(1)Researching about how to calculate the displacement of landslide direction according to the coordinate data of slope monitoring and determining what data interpolation method,which is used to obtain the effective displacement sequence for analysis and prediction,this paper might adopt.(2)Researching about how to analyze the characteristics and laws of the deformation of reservoir slope which is affected by the internal geological conditions and external factors,and is mainly affected by the periodic fluctuation of reservoir water level.(3)Researching about how to determine the appropriate method of modeling according to the deformation characteristics and inducing factors of reservoir slope and further exploring the reservoir slope deformation prediction model which can take into account the inducing factors.(4)Putting the prediction method into practice based on the Qiaoqi reservoir slope deformation monitoring data.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)The displacement along the landslide,which is calculated according to the coordinate transformation and projection displacement,has a good consistency.The discrete and unequal interval slope monitoring displacement sequence which is interpolated by the conformal subsection three times Hermite interpolation method is more consistent with the actual process of slope deformation.(2)Establishing a multiple linear regression model which regards the deformation of the monitoring points as the dependent variable and the water level change&rainfall as the independent variable,and also takes the reservoir water,rainfall induced factors into account.The model which is verified with measured data,can effectively reflect the uncertain relationship between the slope deformation and the inducing factors.(3)Establishing phased prediction model which comes from the idea that the reservoir slope deformation shows the stage characteristics because of the effect of the loading and unloading of reservoir water in a hydrological year.And the model regards the accumulation of the decline of the water table and observation time as the independent variable when water levels fall and rise.The model which is verified with measured data,can effectively reflect the regularity of deformation of reservoir slope in the two stages.