Pathways Of Carbon Emission Reduction For Transportation Sector In Jilin Province Under Carbon Neutral Target

At the 75 th Session of the United Nations General Assembly,China vowed to peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060.In China,the transportation sector is responsible for about 25% of China’s CO2 emissions,and urban transport is responsible for about 40% of China’s CO2 emissions.The CO2 emissions of climate on transportation industry has had a huge impact,especially in cold region,caused by cold wet heating and pavement,transportation energy consumption in a different way and lead to higher carbon emissions,new energy vehicles of low penetration and low degree of the realization of the electrification of cold region traffic department also made of carbon emissions and there were significant differences in other areas.Therefore,targeted mitigation measures in cold regions are needed to achieve peak CO2 emissions.In this paper,transportation modes such as buses,taxis,light rail and cars are divided,and energy types such as gasoline,Liquefied petroleum gas,compressed natural gas,diesel and electricity are divided.LEAP model framework is constructed and baseline scenario,energy-saving scenario,energy-saving low-carbon scenario,low-carbon scenario and carbon neutral scenario are set.The trend of CO2 emission in urban transportation sector of a typical cold province in China is predicted and the path of carbon emission reduction is studied.The results show that under the five scenarios,the peak volume is between 704.7-742.1 thousand metric tons,and the peak year is between 2023-2035.Considering the actual economic and technological development in cold regions and China’s carbon neutrality goal,ELS is the optimal solution,with a peak year of 716.6 thousand metric tons in 2028.In terms of transportation mode,cars,taxis and buses lead the list of carbon dioxide emissions,accounting for 31.24%,23%and 8% of carbon emissions respectively.In order to analyze the CO2 emissions reduction potential of different driving factors,three sub-scenarios were created and the LEAP model was used to calculate the carbon emissions reduced by each sub-scenario.The sensitivity analysis results show that the three factors have different impacts on carbon emissions from transportation in cold regions.Energy intensity is the main reason for the increase in CO2 emissions from the urban transport sector.Under ELS,CO2 emissions can be reduced by 68.66%,6.56% and 1.38% by reducing energy intensity,increasing the proportion of public transport and reducing the proportion of fossil fuels,respectively.Finally,this paper proposes ways to reduce carbon emissions under different scenarios.This paper aims to provide practical reference value and technical support for carbon dioxide emission reduction in urban transportation sector in other cold regions under cold climate conditions.