Influencing Factors Analysis And Prediction Of Industrial Energy Consumption In The Bohai Rim Region Based On WD-BiLSTM

The accelerating industrialisation and urbanisation process has caused accelerated growth of total energy consumption,leading to a serious resource and environmental crisis.As an important carrier of the Belt and Road Initiatives and BTH Coordinated Development,it is of great significance analyzing the current situation of industrial energy consumption the Bohai Rim Region and the influencing factors.Achieve accurate forecasting of industrial energy consumption in order to scientifically formulate strategies for total energy consumption control and consumption structure adjustment.Firstly,the study examined the current situation of industrial energy consumption in the Bohai Rim Region from three perspectives,including gross,structure and intensity.The factors influencing industrial energy consumption in the Bohai Rim Region are sorted out and analysed from three aspects,consisting of population size,economic development and energy structure.Four key factors influencing industrial energy consumption in the Bohai Rim Region,including total population,industrial value added,primary energy production and thermal power generation,were screened out through grey correlation analysis and used as input indicators for the industrial energy consumption prediction model.Secondly,based on LSTM,GRU and BiLSTM deep learning neural networks,11 prediction models were built including linear models,merge function models and combined models,while the prediction performance of the models was evaluated by MAE,RMSE,MAPE.The results show that the introduction of merge function has a certain contribution to reducing the single models’ error,but the accuracy is far less than that of combined models.The decomposition of the original time series by WD can significantly improve the forecasting accuracy of the models.WD-BiLSTM performs the best among all forecasting models and is suitable for forecasting industrial energy consumption in the Bohai Rim Region,with MAPE 5.62% in Beijing,7.39% in Tianjin,6.78% in Hebei,2.98% in Liaoning and 4.49% in Shandong.Finally,three different scenarios of low growth,baseline and high growth were set.Based on the optimal WD-BiLSTM forecasting model,industrial energy consumption in the Bohai Rim Region were simulated for 2020-2025.The results show that,in 2025,the total industrial energy consumption in the Bohai Rim Region will reache 50421.09,55664.54 and 62240.73 million tonnes equivalent coal under the low growth,baseline and high growth scenarios respectively.Based on the results,a policy mix strategy and a regional synergy strategy for industrial energy consumption control in the Bohai Rim Region are proposed.