Construction And Test Of Enterprise Value Evaluation Model Based On Event Research Method

The improvement of functions and related laws continued to increase and reached its peak in 2015.M＆A involved 1,576.649 billion yuan in transactions that year.The evaluation of the overall value of the company as a very important part of the M＆A process has also attracted more and more attention.Due to the late start of research in the field of enterprise value evaluation in my country,in terms of evaluation theory,it often quotes foreign discounted cash flow models,income and asset models,option pricing theory,etc.;in the research of evaluation methods,more traditional theories are used Analysis method,case analysis method,evaluation system construction（factor analysis,principal component analysis）and other methods,analyze the limitations and improvements of different evaluation methods such as company free cash flow model and economic value-added model in the Chinese context.However,although common theoretical analysis methods have strong theoretical foundations,their research conclusions are highly speculative;case analysis methods rely on traditional financial indicators to a high degree,and it is difficult to infer the conclusions drawn from research on individual companies.In addition,through careful reading and sorting of relevant documents,the author found that the academic literature of valuation methods has not made great progress in the past two decades.However,since the concept of enterprise value evaluation has been put forward,the market situation has undergone tremendous changes.The applicability of the value model needs to be strengthened.Inspired by the papers published by Savor and Lu（2009）in Journal of Finance and Malmendier et al.（2016）in Journal of Financial Economics,this article is based on the efficient market theory,arbitrage pricing theory,Marx’s law of commodity value,etc.,fully adapts and utilizes Based on the current market environment,the termination of mergers due to exogenous reasons is the entry point.We downloaded the termination events of mergers and acquisitions that occurred during 2005-2020,and searched and classified the reasons for the termination of mergers and acquisitions through news and announcement searches,and established strict external reasons.The sample is terminated due to health reasons,and the impact of mergers and acquisitions and other irrelevant noises in the cumulative abnormal return is removed,leaving the market to evaluate the company.Based on this,a new valuation model is constructed and the cumulative abnormal return calculated by the event research method is used.Constructed a new valuation model.Then,through case verification and comparison of traditional valuation methods,it is proved that the enterprise value evaluation model established in this article based on the event research method is more accurate when used under certain conditions,and the following conclusions are obtained:First,the valuation model based on event research has higher accuracy,and this research has certain application value;second,the noise of unrelated enterprise value evaluation in CAR is isolated through the termination of mergers and exogenous reasons,and then CAR is transformed into Monetary gains（losses）are feasible.Based on the aforementioned research ideas,this article has carried out some expansive researches.With the development of society and economy,the impact of non-financial factors such as management,information,culture,and innovation capabilities on the value of enterprises has become more and more significant.China’s unique socialist nature,economic system,rural structure,and other concrete non-financial factors The impact of financial factors（the nature of equity,industrial policies,political connections,etc.）on the value of a company cannot be ignored.Therefore,this paper uses the aforementioned research ideas to test the impact of different factors on the value of the company,and concludes as follows: industrial policy and the nature of equity have no significant impact on the value of the company;in terms of political connection,compared to the target company without political connection,there is political connection The target company’s short-term market performance is better;in terms of innovation capability,the target company’s innovation capability cannot improve its market performance in the short term.The conclusion affirms the necessity of establishing political connections in the Chinese context,and shows that innovation capabilities do not necessarily enhance corporate value.To sum up,based on relevant theories and literature research,this article makes full use of the current market environment.From the unique perspective of merger termination,the valuation model constructed by empirical research has higher accuracy and persuasiveness.The model helps to better play the value reference role of the enterprise value assessment report in mergers and acquisitions,helps users of the assessment report reduce the risk of mergers and acquisitions,and provides new inspiration for enterprise value assessment.At the same time,extensive testing of non-financial factors that affect corporate value helps government departments to formulate industrial policies and anti-corruption policies,and also provides a reference for companies to conduct corporate value management.