System Dynamics Simulation For Multi-companies Environmental Pollution Liability Insurance

Chemical industrial park is a practical form of industrial symbiosis network,which aims to promote the cooperation and resource sharing among chemical companies.Parkbased chemical industry has become the main trend in the development of chemical industry.Chemical industrial parks provide economies of scale and opportunity for industrial symbiosis and avoid the environmental risks associated with decentralized chemical plants.However,it also leads to the concentration of major hazard sources and the potential domino effect of accident losses.Chemical industrial parks need appropriate ways to reduce the environmental risks in the park.In order to mitigate the environmental risk in industrial operations,this thesis proposes the continuous improvement strategy to reduce plant-wide environmental risk and the system dynamics simulation of park-wide environmental risk management.A comprehensive framework was first developed to implement a continuous improvement strategy to mitigate the environmental risks of chemical plants.As a first step,we developed a generalized,hierarchical system of indicators to identify environmental risks in manufacturing processes,safety and operational management,and chemical storage and transportation.Next,a qualitative analysis method is proposed to identify risk points that may lead to health and environmental problems.Then,the optimal-worst method is used to quantitatively analyze the risk points,and the criticality value of each risk point is obtained.According to their prevention and control costs,criticality value,and implementation cycles,environmental risk mitigation strategies are assessed and prioritized.Finally,we take a pharmaceutical plant as a case study to verify the feasibility of the proposed framework.This method can help decision makers to determine the best countermeasures to reduce the environmental risks of chemical plants.The second part mainly discusses the applicability of environmental pollution liability insurance in park-wid risk management.The interactions among stakeholders(i.e.,chemical companies,insurance companies,and the local government)are investigated using system dynamics(SD).The SD model for environmental pollution liability insurance considers the interactions between output value,risk level,related government policies,and insurance products.Three different insurance scenarios are developed,i.e.,single company,multiple coalitions,and grand coalition.SD is used to comprehensively map the causality relationships among stakeholders and simulate trends over time.A practical case study is used to illustrate the model.Results show that the implementation of coalition environmental pollution liability insurance helps reduce management difficulties and result in lower premiums in the long run when implemented.Furthermore,the most beneficial strategy is insuring the entire coalition of industries.Companies can consider the best way of insurance from different aspects.The combination of risk reduction and environmental liability insurance considers the safety production and capital allocation of enterprises from both internal and external aspects,and achieves the expected goal of risk reduction and optimal allocation of resources.