Research On The Risk Of Railway Operation Accident Based On Bayes

In recent years,domestic and international railway accidents have occurred frequently,so it is extremely important to conduct risk research on railway accidents.Analyzing the disaster-causing factors and risks of railway accidents can not only effectively prevent the occurrence of railway accidents,but also provide a basis for railway management departments to take emergency prevention and control measures.This paper explores the causes of railway operation accidents in depth,and studies the Bayesian network model of railway operation accidents from the perspective of risk research.The main contents of this article are as follows:The first chapter briefly describes the research background and significance of railway operation accident risk research,and briefly describes the main research content,research methods,technical routes,risk and Bayesian network research status and development at home and abroad.The second chapter mainly elaborates the relevant concepts and theoretical basis of the Bayes-based railway operation accident risk research.First,the concept of risk and vulnerability is defined,and the methods of risk assessment and the steps of vulnerability assessment are summarized.And concisely introduced the theoretical knowledge points of fault tree analysis and Bayesian network,and the conversion rules between fault tree and Bayesian network.Chapter Three analyzes the disaster-causing factors and characteristics of railway operation accidents.Deeply explored the internal and external factors affecting railway operation,analyzed the causes of railway operation accidents from four aspects:personnel factors,mechanical facilities factors,external environmental factors and management factors,and briefly explained the main characteristics of railway operation accidents.Chapter Four conducts risk research on railway operation accidents based on the fault tree analysis method.The fault tree of railway operation conflicts and derailment accidents was constructed,the minimum cut set of the accident was obtained using the fault tree model,the structural importance of the fault tree was determined,qualitative analysis was carried out,and the probability importance and criticality were calculated according to the structure of the fault tree.Quantitative analysis was completed for importance and structural importance.Chapter Five conducts risk assessment of railway operation accidents based on Bayesian network.First,a railway conflict and derailment accident model was constructed based on the Bayesian network,and the possibility analysis and sensitivity analysis were completed based on the model.Then,the vulnerability assessment index of the railway operation system was established,and the vulnerability assessment was carried out.The indicators are graded.The sixth chapter summarizes and summarizes the main research content of the paper,and puts forward the prospects for future research directions.