Study On The Interrelationships Between China’s Air Emissions’ Cost,Its Economic Growth And Energy Consumption During 1989-2016

Since the industrial revolution,resources depletion and ecological destruction have become more and more serious,and environmental problems caused by economic development have attracted the wide attention of governments of all the countries in the world.With the increasing energy consumption derived from China’s fast economic growth,the amount of air pollutant emissions and CO₂ emissions has been continuously increasing since the Reform and Opening.In order to promote the sustainable development of Chinese social economy,it is urgent to improve the relationships between China’s economy,energy and air emissions’impacts.Based on the emergy theory,this paper proposes the related methods to quantify air emissions cost derived from emissions’harm to human health and biodiversity.Next a set of indicator system,based on currency,energy and emergy,is established to describe the relationship between economy,energy and air emissions cost,and then the vector autoregressive model is introduced to explore the interaction and causality between economy,energy and air emissions cost.The presented methods and indicators are applied to calculate the air emissions costs of economic development in mainland China from 1989 to 2016,analyze the characteristics of energy consumption and NO_x emissions and CO₂ emissions in various sectors and industries,and further investigate the interaction and causality between economy,energy and air emissions cost in this period.The main study results are summarized as follows:（1）During the study period,the emergy cost caused by air emissions increased by 1.72times from 8.89E+21 sej in 1989 to 2.42E+22 sej in 2016,with an annual growth rate of3.78%.Among them,the human health loss caused by air emissions increased by 1.72 times from 8.89E+21 sej in 1989 to 2.42E+22 sej in 2016,with an annual growth rate of 3.78%,and the ecological loss caused by air emissions decreased by 28.27%from 4.03E+14 sej in 1989to 2.89E+14 sej in 2016,with an average annual decline rate of 1.22%.During the study period,the loss of human health caused by air emissions accounted for nearly 100%of the the emergy cost from air emissions.Although the prevention and control of SO₂ and dust in China has achieved initial achievements after 2006,the contribution rate of CO₂ and NO_x to the emergy cost caused by air emissions was still rising.（2）The index EUPG decreased by 62.24%from 0.97（kg standard coal）CNY^-1 in 1989to 0.37（kg standard coal）CNY^-1 in 2016,with an average annual decline rate of 3.54%,and it reflects that as China’s economy grew during the study period,its energy efficiency also increased.The index ECPE decreased by 39.46%from 9.17E+09 sej（kg standard coal）^-1 in1989 to 5.55E+09 sej（kg standard coal）^-1 in 2016,with an average annual decline rate of1.84%,and it reflects that the environmental impact intensity caused by China’s energy consumption has shown an slightly decreasing trend during the study period.The index ECPG decreased by 77.14%from 8.90E+09 sej CNY^-1 in 1989 to 2.04E+09 sej CNY^-1 in 2016,with an average annual decline rate of 5.32%,and it reflects that the air emission cost caused by China’s economic development during the study period has gradually decreased.The index SCD increased by 18.14 times from 1 in 1989 to 19.14 in 2016,with an annual growth rate of11.55%,and it reflects that China’s economic development quality increased significantly during the study period.The index SHD decreased by 2.70%from 1 in 1989 to 0.97 in 2016,with an average annual decline rate of 0.10%,and it reflects that the relationsip among China’s economy,energy and air emissions cost has not been improved during the study period.In addition,the results of logarithmic mean divisia index method show that EUPG,ECPE and ECPG all had positive effects on SCD during the study period,of which ECPG had the most positive effect on SCD;energy consumption had the most negative effect on SHD during the study period,and GDP had the most positive effect on SHD.（3）During the study period,China’s NO_x and CO₂ emissions mainly came from the power industry in the industrial sector.In 2006-2016,the annual NO_x emission of the power industry in the industrial sector was 7.66E+09 kg yr^-1 and accounted for 60.18%of the total NO_x emission of the industrial sector and 41.40%of the total NO_x emission of all sectors in China;the annual CO₂ emission of the power industry in the industrial sector was 3.17E+12kg yr^-1 and accounted for 44.98%of the total CO₂ emission of the industrial sector and 31.56%of the total CO₂ emission of all sectors in China.In addition,the contribution of China’s transportation sector to NO_x emissions became increasingly prominent during the study period and reached 6.01E+09 kg in 2016 and accounted for 38.56%of the NO_x emissions caused of all sectors in China.（4）The co-integration test results of the vector autoregressive model show that the coefficient between China’s economic growth and energy consumption is 1.0095 and the coefficient between China’s economic growth and air emission cost is 0.3118,and the results show that China’s economic growth,energy consumption and air emission cost will be positively correlated in the long term.At the same time,the results of Granger causality tests show that GDP does Granger-cause air emission cost at the significance level of 5%,and energy consumption does Granger-cause GDP and energy consumption does Granger-cause air emission cost at the significance level of 10%.The results of impulse response functions show that China’s economic growth will still depend on energy consumption and thus lead to increasing air emissions cost in the next 15 years.Finally,this paper puts forward the following suggestions,including（1）reducing the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption while further promoting the clean use of coal in the power generation industry;（2）improving energy statistics work;（3）strengthening the motor vehicle emission control;（4）improving the theoretical framework of environmental red line management;（5）estimating the air environmental capacity according to the local conditions;（6）promoting environmental cost accounting system;and（7）establishing a joint environmental law enforcement mechanism.