A Spatial Assessment Of Future Potential Landscape Ecological Risk Derived By Land Use/Cover Change Using GIS And RS Data

Urban planning for sustainable development is a key lead to future human wellbeing and natural resources safety both region and global.Well understanding future potential landscape ecological risk (FPLER) scenarios will help people manage the utilization of natural resources.In order to know what changes will happen over long distances in the future,we have selected a variety of landscape factors as risk parameters,which will occupy the area destroyed by human beings.The risk factors are included current LUCC 2018,future simulation of LUCC 2030,2040,2050,population density predicted 2018,2030,2040,2050,road distance,urban distance,river distance,slope,DEM,soil map,and geology map.Historically,selected areas have faced many pressures,and these disturbances have led to the destruction of landscape ecology.To understand landscape changes,the study area has been analyzed by monitoring land use/cover change(LUCC).The analysis found that land use/cover change(LUCC)is one of the causes of global climate and environmental changes.The result analysis showed that the historical loss of intact forest was 24.36%,and the historical loss of bare land was 1.01%.degraded forests (11.36%),agricultural land (8.91%),built-up areas(4.49%),and water bodies(1.16%)have also greatly increased.In addition,the study continued to analyze the current 2018 and future LUCC of 2030,2040,2050,and the results showed that in the near future,land use will be converted from one type to another,especially from natural types to man-made uses.These changes indicate that losses related to ecosystem services will undermine human well-being in the city and other parts of the country.Finally,this study uses the AHP weighting technique for risk classification to process the above data through the weighted sum in ArcGIS 10.3 software to derive future potential landscape ecological risk(FPLER) analysis.The final result shows that FPLER has found a risk in a large area over the study area.Generally,it can be seen that the medium-risk,high-risk,and very highrisk areas are mainly located in flat areas over the suburbs area.The landscape ecological risk has significantly increase and decrease during the 32 years from 2018 to 2050.The highest increase and decrease between the year of 2018–2030 were 340.892 km~2 and-313.116 km~2,which presented in high risk and low risk categories,respectively.Another highest increase and decrease of 2030–2040 and 2040–2050 were very high risk categories and very low risk,medium risk categories,which accounted for 166 km~2,111.3246 km~2,and-247.501 km~2,-134.617 km~2,respectively.The very low risk categories have decreasing trend in more than two decades,then it increases slightly to 2050.Low risk categories found the continuously decrease within the two decades from 2018 to 2050.The medium risk categories have decreased from 2018 to 2030 and2040 to 2050,then increases significantly in the period of 2030 to 2040.The other high risk and very high risk categories found that both have increasing trend slightly year by year.The results of this research provide basic scientific knowledge for LUCC planners,urban designers,and natural resource managers.They are the decision support tools for making sustainable land resource use policies in Vientiane and other cities with similar conditions.