| Since the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,promoting the construction of ecological civilization and the development of environmental protection industry has become an urgent issue in China.In recent years,the increment of environmental protection PPP projects is significant.At present,China’s PPP project pool industry has accumulated nearly 1,000 environmental protection PPP projects,with an investment of more than 1 trillion yuan.However,there are only more than 600 projects actually implemented.In order to revitalize the existing PPP project assets and attract more investment In 2016,the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance successively issued documents to promote the asset securitization of PPP projects.After several years of development,PPP asset securitization is still in the exploratory stage,the number of products actually issued and listed is small,and environmental protection projects occupy the majority.In order to promote the healthy development of PPP the first mock exam of risk is urgent and profound.The environmental protection project is a key area in this mode.It has great analysis and discussion value,and has reference significance for improving the asset securitization products and risk design.This paper takes the "Special Plan for Asset Support of Anxin Securities-Sichuan Development Guo Run Environment Mianzhu Water Supply and Drainage Integration PPP Project"(hereinafter referred to as "Guo Run PPP")as an example,and constructs a risk evaluation index weight system for environmental protection PPP-ABS by means of expert rating and analytic hierarchy process.The first level indicators are cash flow risk,macro environment risk,credit risk and other risks in order,and three second level indicators are set up under each first level indicator,which is used as the framework for detailed risk analysis of this case.In the process of analysis,sensitivity analysis method is used to predict the risk of cash flow with the highest proportion of weight.The key factors affecting cash flow are stress tested to study the principal and interest payment risk of priority securities.The financial analysis method is used to study the credit risk of credit subjects.The qualitative analysis of other risks that cannot be quantified is carried out from many aspects.Finally,through the comparative study with other environmental protection PPP-ABS products,it is found that Guorun PPP has done a better job in risk control,and has not yet exposed a major risk threat.Combined with the risk analysis results of the case,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)In terms of cash flow risk,environmental protection PPP-ABS products are generally more affected by it,and the transaction structure of double SPV can effectively resist the cash flow risk.(2)In terms of macro environmental risk,environmental protection PPP-ABS products are greatly affected because of their public welfare and long-term characteristics.(3)In terms of credit risk,environmental protection PPP-ABS products are less affected,the government of the principal and interest payment of the largest.(4)In terms of other risks,environmental protection PPP-ABS products are the least affected and the consequences are controllable.Finally,targeted response suggestions are put forward from the four levels of risks,in the hope that they can provide a new idea for subsequent PPP asset securitization products in dealing with risk issues,promote the sound development of the PPP asset securitization for environmental protection,and comply with the policies and guidelines of the State on building ecological civilization and the grand environmental protection cause. |
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