| The continuous increase in carbon dioxide content has accelerated global climate warming and the global ecological environment has continued to deteriorate.Carbon storage assessment has become a research focus and hotspot in ecological and environmental issues.As an important part of the global carbon cycle,the terrestrial ecosystem is of great significance for predicting climate change,greenhouse gas emissions and reduction,and the change of land use pattern is the basis for studying the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems,which directly affects the structure and structure of terrestrial ecosystems.Distribution,which in turn changes the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems.This paper takes the upper reaches of the Fen River as the research area,uses the system dynamics model and the CLUE-S model,based on years of land use data,soil data and other data to simulate the land use pattern of the upper reaches of the Fen River under the scenario of natural growth and ecological protection in 2030.The In VEST model is used to calculate the carbon storage in the study area under different periods and different scenarios,and then obtain the spatiotemporal dynamic changes of land use in the study area for many years,analyze the future land use change trends and changes in the structure of various land use types in the upper Fen River under different scenarios,and evaluate for many years The change trend and spatial distribution of carbon stocks,and clarify the carbon stocks and spatial distribution of terrestrial ecosystems in the region under scenarios of natural growth and ecological protection in the future.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Analysis of land use change.The main land use type in the upper reaches of the Fen River from 2007 to 2017 was grassland,which remained unchanged,but its area proportion continued to decline,with a decrease of 5.49%;the water area also showed a downward trend,with a decrease of 2.04%,and an area reduction of8144.77 hm~2.However,in recent years,the downward trend has slowed down;the area of unused land has decreased by 3137.40 hm~2;the area of arable land has increased by 17,605.16hm~2,and both construction land and forest land have increased,with an increase of 0.74%and 2.18%respectively.(2)Land use pattern under different scenarios in 2030.The area of water bodies decreases under the natural growth scenario,and increases under the ecological protection scenario;the area of forest land decreases,but there is a gap between the decline and the area;the difference between the construction land under the two scenarios is not large;the unused land decreases.However,the area under the ecological protection scenario is relatively large;the area of arable land increases greatly under the self-contained growth scenario;the grassland has a large gap under the two scenarios.(3)Carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems.In 2017,the carbon storage and carbon density of the upper Fenhe ecosystem were 58997910.98 t and 147.54 t/hm~2,which increased by 1237143.02 t and 3.09 t/hm~2compared with 2007.Under the natural growth scenario from 2017 to 2030,the carbon storage and carbon density of the ecosystem in the upper reaches of Fenhe decreased significantly,mainly due to the decrease in forest land and grass land,the increase in construction land,and the significant increase under the ecological protection scenario.The carbon storage and carbon density were 59142210.16 t and 147.95 t/hm~2,respectively.Ecological protection scenarios can effectively improve the regional ecosystem carbon storage,but at the same time,sustainable social and economic development must be considered.Therefore,in the future development plan,the research area should coordinate various resources based on ecological protection scenarios to ensure economic development. |
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