Revenue Risk Evaluation Of Wastewater Treatment PPP Projects Based On System Dynamics

The introduction of the PPP model for the market-based operation of wastewater treatment projects broadens the project funding channels,eases the pressure on government finances,and also brings into play the advantages of private capital technology and management to enhance the benefits of urban water ecology and environmental management and public service quality.However,the process of implementing wastewater treatment projects using the PPP model will generate many potentially associated factors that can easily lead to risks in project revenue,and excessive revenue risks can even lead to project failure.Accurate evaluation of the revenue risk of wastewater treatment PPP projects is a key measure to ensure the smooth operation of the project and improve the enthusiasm of social capital parties to participate,therefore,this paper attempts to construct a system dynamics evaluation model based on the theory of system dynamics approach from two aspects of the project revenue risk system and revenue structure system,in order to reveal the mechanism of coupled action of project revenue risk,and provide evaluation for the revenue risk of wastewater treatment PPP projects The reference basis for the evaluation of the revenue risk of wastewater treatment PPP projects.This paper takes the revenue risk of wastewater treatment PPP projects as the research object,firstly,system analysis is conducted at the macro qualitative level,the revenue risk factors are identified using the literature research method,the system boundary is determined,the SD causal loop diagram of the revenue risk system is established,the feedback path of the revenue risk system is analyzed through the cause and effect tree,the SD stock flow model of the revenue risk system is constructed,and the linear action relationship of the revenue risk factors is determined based on the Assume and improve the FSE method to determine the system dynamics equations,then divide the revenue risk level according to the system equilibrium margin theory,and then use computer simulation and analysis to reveal the action mechanism of the revenue risk system of wastewater treatment PPP project,and carry out the qualitative evaluation of revenue risk.Next,further analysis from the fine quantitative level,identify the total cost,total revenue and other revenue-related factors of the wastewater treatment PPP project,establish the causal loop diagram of the revenue structure system,use SD to identify and analyze the causal feedback path of the project revenue structure system,divide the subsystem according to the project revenue factors,establish the SD model of the revenue structure system of the wastewater treatment PPP project,consider the random volatility of the wastewater volume to improve The grey Markov model is used to predict the wastewater volume,and computer simulation is used to measure the cost and revenue of the project,calculate the dynamic financial indicators,conduct financial feasibility analysis and uncertainty analysis,reveal the operation mechanism of the project revenue structure system,quantitatively evaluate and analyze the revenue risk,and then integrate the results of SD qualitative and quantitative model simulation to derive the revenue risk evaluation results of the wastewater treatment PPP project..Finally,in this paper,the study and analysis are carried out by the constructed revenue risk evaluation system dynamics model with the example of a wastewater treatment PPP project,and the results show that the model outputs more accurate qualitative and quantitative evaluation results of revenue risk,which proves the reliability of the model and can provide relevant reference basis for the revenue risk evaluation and decision-making of wastewater treatment PPP projects.