Study On The Temporal And Spatial Differences Of Energy Consumption And Carbon Emission Of Industries Above Designated Size And Carbon Reduction Countermeasures

The construction of industrial low-carbon is an important carrier for the development of low-carbon economy.At present,the discussion and Research on low-carbon economy has become a topic of concern.More and more cities have issued their own low-carbon economic construction strategies,hoping to achieve the healthy and rapid development of economy by seizing the opportunity of low-carbon economic development.It is also urgent to study the construction of low-carbon urban agglomeration and the Countermeasures of energy consumption and carbon emission reduction in urban agglomeration industry.Based on this,this thesis first analyzes the status quo of low-carbon development of the industrial agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta.By selecting representative indicators,the evaluation system of low carbon development of the industry in the Pearl River Delta is established.The comprehensive and nine cities under the jurisdiction of the urban agglomeration are evaluated by entropy principal component analysis of the combination model.The cluster analysis and GIS spatial autocorrelation model are used to evaluate the development level of low carbon industry in the Pearl River Delta The thesis analyzes and studies the spatial and temporal patterns of industrial low carbon in nine cities.Secondly,it forecasts the carbon emission of the urban agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta.Using EKC model,the industrial added value of the urban agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta is taken as the economic index,and the carbon emission is regarded as the environmental index to study the change of industrial carbon emission of the urban agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta.Finally,the thesis gives the policy suggestions of industrial energy conservation and emission reduction in Pearl River Delta region based on the empirical results of the previous three chapters.The results show that:(1)The total economic volume of the Pearl River Delta continues to rise rapidly,but its growth rate is slowing down gradually.Among them,the economic development among cities in the region is very unbalanced,with more than half of the economic resources gathered in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.From the perspective of total carbon emissions,the industrial energy consumption carbon emissions in the Pearl River Delta region from2008 to 2018 are in a fluctuating increasing trend.The regions with higher carbon emission are concentrated in the more developed areas in the Pearl River Delta,and the lower regions are concentrated in the economically backward areas;(2)The paper uses entropy principal component analysis to evaluate and analyze the low carbon development level of the industry in the whole of the Pearl River Delta from 2008 to 2018 and 9 cities in 2008 and 2018.It is found that the comprehensive score of low carbon in the industrial clusters of Pearl River Delta shows a fluctuating upward trend,and there are great differences in the low-carbon development level of industries in different cities;(3)The spatial distribution of industrial carbon emission in urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta is analyzed.The spatial differentiation shows that there are more developed areas in the middle of the Pearl River Delta,less developed areas on both sides,but the carbon intensity is just the opposite.In view of the evolution of the industrial carbon emission center trajectory,the center of carbon emission intensity is located in the central region of the Pearl River Delta.From the migration track,the industrial carbon emission center of Pearl River Delta gradually shifted from the east to the West;(4)The paper uses the grey system theory to simulate and forecast the industrial energy consumption carbon emission and industrial added value of the Pearl River Delta from 2008 to 2035.If the industry in the Pearl River Delta and its cities remains unchanged before 2018,the industrial energy consumption carbon emissions of the Pearl River Delta and its cities will be growing rapidly in the next decade;until 2035,The rapid growth of the economy in the Pearl River Delta can not be separated from the rigid expansion of energy consumption,which will be a serious challenge for energy conservation and emission reduction in the Pearl River Delta.For the cities of the Pearl River Delta,the faster the economic development,the easier it is to achieve the carbon intensity emission reduction target.In the low development scenario,only Guangzhou can complete the task of emission reduction.When the economic development speed is equal to and higher than expected,Dongguan can barely complete the task of emission reduction.Therefore,most other cities still need to face great pressure on emission reduction.