| The acceleration of the process of urbanization and industrialization in China has led to a deterioration in the quality of the atmospheric environment,which has severely threatened human living environment and public health.The Land Use Regression（LUR）model is a method to study the spatial distribution of air pollutants in a city or region.Many scholars use a variety of methods to expand the types of variables to improve the performance of the model.In the process of constructing the LUR model of Jinan,this thesis incorporates three-dimensional architectural form indicators,comprehensively analyzes,simulates and predicts the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5in Jinan.This article uses the PM2.5concentration data released by 31 air quality monitoring points of Jinan in 2018 as sample points,and establishes a regression model of land use in Jinan based on factors such as land use,road density,weather,population,economy,elevation,three-dimensional building indicators,and catering sources.The four seasons of models comprehensively analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5in Jinan,and construct LUR models with and without building factors for accuracy comparison analysis.The main research conclusions are as follows:1.The analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution of the PM2.5concentration at each site in Jinan shows that:from the perspective of time,the PM2.5concentration at the Lanxiang Technical School,Senior Apartment,Risheng International School,Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau,and Vegetable Oil Factory monitoring site in Jinan is significantly higher than other sites on the annual scale;it showed obvious seasonal distribution characteristics on the seasonal average scale,showing a change pattern of high in spring and winter and low in summer and autumn;"U"-shaped distribution on a monthly scale.The concentration values in January,February,November and December are significantly higher than those of other months;the diurnal variation is characterized by a valley and double peaks;the overall spatial distribution presents the characteristics of high inside the main urban area and low outside.2.The results of the bivariate correlation analysis between PM2.5concentration and various geographical elements show that the correlation between road type and PM2.5increases significantly with the increase of the buffer zone;the building density of the 2400m and3000m buffer zone is significantly positively correlated with the PM2.5concentration;the elevation and the building volume density of the 3000-meter buffer zone are significantly negatively correlated with the PM2.5concentration.The adjusted R2values of the LUR model for the four seasons of Jinan in spring,summer,autumn and winter are 0.883,0.528,0.585,and 0.756 respectively,verifying that the RMSE is less than 15,and the error between the fitted value and the measured value is small.The constructed model has a good fitting effect,and the performance of the LUR model that incorporates three-dimensional architectural indicators through experimental comparison has a certain improvement compared with that without three-dimensional architectural indicators.3.The spatial distribution map generated based on the simulation and prediction of the LUR model shows that the overall Jinan spatial distribution of PM2.5in 2019 showed a gradually decreasing pattern from the central area of the city to the surrounding areas.The high-value gathering areas in spring are mainly distributed in Lixia District and the eastern part of Huaiyin District in the city center;high-value gathering areas in summer are mainly located in the center of the city,Jiyang District,the north of Zhangqiu District and the south of Laiwu District;the high-value gathering areas in autumn are located in the center of Huaiyin,Tianqiao,Lixia,Licheng and Zhangqiu Districts;the high-value gathering areas in winter are concentrated in the middle of Lixia,Tianqiao and Zhangqiu Districts. |
PDF Full Text Request