Study On The Development Evaluation Of Ecological Environment Carrying Capacity Of Jilin Province Based On The PSR Mode

The EECC(ecological environment carrying capacity)is the key to the construction of ecological civilization,the basic tool to judge whether the social economic activities are in harmony with the resources,environment and ecosystem,and the performance of the overall level of the ecosystem.In order to promote the construction of ecological civilization in Jilin Province,this paper makes an evaluation study on the bearing capacity of ecological environment in Jilin Province.This paper includes the following parts:The first part describes the background and significance of the topic,summarizes the origin,evolution and development of the concept of EECC,finds the shortcomings of the existing research work by combing the relevant literature at home and abroad,and summarizes the research content,technical route and innovation of this paper.In the second part,based on the "PSR(pressure state response)" model,using the method of R-cluster and factor analysis,combined with the characteristics of Jilin province’s ecological environment,the evaluation index system of Jilin province’s EECC is established,which consists of three criteria: P(pressure layer),S(state layer)and R(response layer).The third part uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight to study the EECC of Jilin Province in 2008-2018.The results show that "P(pressure layer)" has the greatest impact on the EECC of Jilin Province.From 2008 to 2018,the EECC of Jilin Province is on the rise as a whole,and the EECC of Jilin Province has a trend of "excellent" since 2016.The fourth part uses the fuzzy time series prediction model based on trend prediction and autoregressive model to predict the EECC of Jilin Province in 2019-2020.The prediction results are "good" and tend to "excellent".The fifth part is conclusion and suggestion.This chapter summarizes the main work of this paper,and puts forward reasonable suggestions for the development of EECC in Jilin Province.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)to apply the "R-cluster factor analysis method" The method of index quantitative screening is applied to the construction of EECC index system;(2)according to the characteristics of EECC,the fuzzy time series prediction model based on trend prediction and autoregression is applied to the prediction of EECC,which provides certain reference and guidance for the prediction of EECC.