Research On Economy-Energy-Environment Development Based On System Dynamics Model

Coordinated development of Economy-Energy-Environment(3E)is an important factor to realize sustainable development.Too much emphasis on economic growth and neglect of energy and environmental protection,that lead to severe energy crisis and environmental pollution.Ultimately,the economy is not sustainable.In recent years,China has made some achievements in changing the mode of economic growth,but the problems of resources and environment is still serious.Promoting the regional coordinated development of the 3E system has become the primary issue of development.Based on theory of coordinated development,take Jiangsu,Hubei and Inner Mongolia represent the eastern,central and western parts of the country,take 2005-2030 as study period,use the system dynamics(SD)method,and construct the SD model of 3E system,to explore the mode of realize coordinated development.The first,figuring out the overall structure and internal relationships of the 3E system,and choose the main indicators to design causal relationship diagram and SD flow chart.The second,calculating the model parameters and equations,and use VENSIM PLE software to build the system dynamics model of Jiangsu,Hubei and Inner Mongolia.After these models pass the test of logical test,operation test,historical test and sensitivity analysis,to simulate the SD model.The third,setting up 7 different simulation scenarios to simulate,including natural development scenario,industrial development scenario,industrial structure optimization scenario,technological innovation level improvement scenario,energy structure adjustment scenario,environmental protection scenario,integrated adjustment scenario.Then,calculating development level and coordinated development degree of 3E systems.The results show that:(1)The system dynamics model can reflect the mechanism of 3E system,which has multiple feedback channels and complex relationships,and technological innovation is a main factor to promote the development of 3E system.(2)Under the natural development scenario,the economy grew steadily,the energy gap is widening,the intensity of environmental pollution is increasing,coordinated development degree of 3E system is rising,and coordinated development level is increased accordingly,and presents regional differences.Hubei’s coordination degree is slightly higher than Jiangsu,and both are in the stage of intermediate coordinated development,Inner Mongolia’s coordinate degree is relatively lower,and in the stage of primary coordinated development.(3)In different time periods,there are obvious spatial differences in the influence of different scenarios on promoting the development and coordinated development of regional 3E system.If regardless of the cost of policy implementation,integrated adjustment scenario is generally optimal.This scenario contains four measures of industrial structure optimization,technological innovation,energy structure adjustment and environmental protection,which can significantly improve the development level of economy,energy,environment and their coordinated development degree.(4)Jiangsu,Hubei and Inner Mongolia are representative provinces in the eastern,central and western regions,the results can reflect China’s overall situation and spatial differences.In order to improve the coordination degree of regional 3E system and save cost of policy implementation,Inner Mongolia should give priority to the policy of optimize the industrial structure,which can significantly reduce the energy gap and environmental pollution intensity,and improve coordinated development level.For Jiangsu and Hubei,in 5 years,Jiangsu can adopt policies of optimize the industrial structure or adjust the energy structure to improve the coordination degree of regional 3E system.Hubei is better to adopt policies of optimize the industrial structure.In the long term,there is little difference in the effects of different policies,Jiangsu and Hubei can adopt natural development mode.However,to make up for the shortcomings of 3E subsystem,the regions with good economic development and poor resource endowment,especially the eastern region,that can give priority to adjust the energy structure,and use technological innovation to develop new energy.The regions with rapid economic rise and limited resources,especially in the central region,that can improve technological innovation level and pay attention to keep balance of energy and environment.The regions with strong dependence on resource industries,especially in the western region,that can raise technological innovation level on the basis of adjust the industrial structure,and strengthen environmental governance and innovate governance models.According to the results of the coordinated development of Jiangsu,Hubei and Inner Mongolia,four suggestions to improve the coordinated development of the 3E system were purposed.(1)Optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure,and attach importance to the development of high-end manufacturing industry.(2)Adjusting the energy consumption structure,and developing new energy.(3)Raising the level of technological innovation,that can promote economic growth,energy conservation and environmental protection.(4)Increasing investment in environmental protection,and innovating environmental governance models.