Economic Evaluation And Risk Analysis Research Of A Brazil Deepwater Pre-Salt Oilfield Project

At present,China become the world's largest oil importer,and it is the key to solve Chinese energy problems to make efforts to explore the joint venture exploration and development of foreign oil and gas resources.Brazil deep-water oil reserves are huge and promising.The total recoverable oil and gas reserves in the pre-salt area are nearly56 billion barrels of oil equivalent.At present,Chinese three major oil companies have started to invest in Brazil offshore oil fields,but their involvement is still shallow and there is little research on this topic.Based on the Brazil deep-water pre-salt L oilfield economic evaluation and risk analysis of case study,using literature method,the discounted cash flow method,Monte Carlo simulation analysis,the decision tree method and other research methods for research.Combine with the requirements of relevant national ministries,the selection requirements of enterprise economic evaluation method and the comprehensive consideration of project background,to calculate the development investment item and the later operation cost.According to the laws,regulations,financial,tax payment and contract method,analyze the project economic evaluation.This paper proposes an economic evaluation method suitable for deep-water oil and gas field development projects,and suggests that the economic effect of projects should be evaluated by the combination of discounted cash flow method and internal rate of return(IRR).Through the analysis of economic evaluation,it is concluded that the IRR of the project meets the economic index requirements of Chinese oil companies investment in overseas offshore oil and gas exploration projects.In terms of risk analysis,except for the analysis of internal and external risk factors,it is suggested to carry out sensitivity analysis of economic evaluation indicators and scenario analysis for project uncertainty,so as to comprehensively evaluate the factors that have the greatest impact on the project.In the process of risk analysis,based on the economic evaluation results,evaluate the potential internal and external risk factors of the project.The reserves volume and production volume are the biggest risk factors.Through uncertainty analysis,it is clear that oil price and production volume have the greatest impact on IRR,among which oil price is the most sensitive economic indicator.Finally,based on the analysis of the above three aspects,a dynamic risk management system based on risk game learning is established to adapt to the project.