Research On Intelligent Inversion And Emergency Decision-Making Method For Multi-Hazard Coupling Accidents In LNG Tank System

At present,LNG terminals all over the world are showing a trend of large-scale.Due to the low temperature and flammable physical properties of LNG,once it is improperly operated,accidents such as layered rolling and leakage will occur,which may seriously cause huge economic losses.In this paper,the STAMP-STPA model is used to analyze the accident,and an LNG storage tank area accident model is established based on the analysis of multi-disasters in the LNG storage tank area.The multi-disaster coupling accident inversion model is constructed by combining with the artificial intelligence Rete algorithm.By analyzing the process from accident result to cause,the analysis method of intelligent detection and calculation of accident cause is established;Combined with the association rules,The intelligent emergency decision-making for the leakage accident of LNG storage is studied;Finally,combined with the contents of the first three parts,a real-time analysis and inversion software for multi-disaster coupling accident inversion calculation and emergency decision-making of LNG storage tank is established.(1)Research on forward modeling of multi disaster coupling accidents of LNG storage tank.A forward model based on STAMP / STPA model is proposed for the coupling accidents of LNG tank leakage and fire disaster.It can be expressed intuitively:(1)The interaction between components;(2)Human,machine,software and other influencing factors.(2)In view of the shortcomings of the existing research on the coupling accidents of multi-disasters in LNG storage,a multi-disaster coupling accident inversion method based on Rete algorithm is proposed.The inversion rule base of multi-disaster coupling accidents in LNG storage is obtained by counting a number of accident cases.Finally,the specific root cause of the failure of LNG storage system is determined according to the rule base.The results show that this method can quickly and accurately retrieve the root cause of the accident or fault,and get the fault propagation path.(3)Aiming at the existing emergency decision-making research of LNG storage,a multi-disaster coupling accident emergency decision-making method based on association rules is proposed.This method classifies the accidents by judging the severity of the accidents,and determines the types of accidents by judging the amount of leakage,and finally gets the corresponding emergency decision-making scheme.This method can combine all kinds of accident emergency decision-making schemes and cases comprehensively and accurately to get the LNG tank farm coupling accident emergency decision-making database,and improve the LNG tank coupled accident emergency decision-making database through manual intervention.