Study On VFM Evaluation Method Of Hebei X Shale Gas Development PPP Project

With the continuous advancement of China's deepening system reform,the oil and gas market is gradually liberalized,which provides a good policy environment for the marketization of shale gas development.Under the background of tight government finance,the combination of shale gas development projects with high capital investment and long payback period and PPP mode has broad development prospects.Foreign governments are actively promoting it,however,there are few studies on the value for money(VFM)evaluation method of shale gas development PPP project in China,which are only limited to the framework level.And they are lacking the support of engineering and mathematical theory methods,which is difficult to implement to the specific application.In order to solve the above problems,this paper studies the VFM evaluation method of shale gas based on Hebei X shale gas development project,hoping to promote the relevant theoretical research It provides a useful reference for the further development of law.Hebei X shale gas reservoir is mainly located in Xuanhua basin.It contains marine shale of Xiamaling formation of Mesoproterozoic and continental shale of Xiahuayuan formation of Jurassic,with abundant shale gas reserves.Based on the data of Hebei X shale gas reservoir development plan and according to the ?Value for money evaluation guidelines for cooperation between government and social capital(Revised Draft)?,this paper establishes the framework of shale gas quantitative and qualitative evaluation parameters,puts forward feasible evaluation methods,and makes a systematic study on the implementation of PPP mode for the project.In the quantitative evaluation stage,this paper organically integrates the basic theory of VFM and shale gas economic evaluation,fully considers the four stages of shale gas exploration and development selection evaluation and establishes a cost accounting parameter system from the perspective of project implementation based on Hebei X shale gas project scheme.At the same time,according to the risk list of the whole life cycle of China's PPP projects and the characteristics of shale gas projects The risk of Hebei X shale gas project was quantitatively analyzed by questionnaire survey method,and a feasible quantitative evaluation process method of shale gas development project was established.According to the evaluation results,the VFM value of Hebei X shale gas development project is far greater than 0.In the qualitative evaluation stage,this paper widely investigates the existing PPP project index system,and according to the characteristics of shale gas project,establishes the qualitative evaluation index system suitable for Hebei X shale gas project through screening and optimization.In order to solve the problem of constant qualitative evaluation standard of PPP project(each index is 100 points optimal),this paper innovatively puts forward DAT model for qualitative evaluation mathematical.In the qualitative evaluation method,the static "optimal target" is the dynamic "ideal target",which is set up by the government,social capital and experts respectively.DAT model is easier to reflect the needs of all parties and greatly improves the work efficiency.DAT model is used to calculate the index weight and score the scheme,and Hebei X shale gas development project is qualitatively evaluated.Combined with the quantitative evaluation results,the conclusion of the PPP project is "Passed".In this paper,a relatively complete set of shale gas VFM evaluation system is established,including shale gas VFM qualitative evaluation parameter system and evaluation method,quantitative evaluation index system and evaluation method.Based on this system,Hebei X shale gas development project is evaluated for VFM,and reasonable conclusions are obtained.This system can provide a useful reference for the VFM evaluation of similar projects at the implementation level.